North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 08 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-09,1836,2193,Daily Model Output (20170608)
2017-06-10,1710,1994
2017-06-11,1660,1892
2017-06-12,1568,1759
2017-06-13,1480,1652
2017-06-14,1278,1427
2017-06-15,1081,1212
2017-06-16,1032,1150
2017-06-17,1020,1130
2017-06-18,1042,1145
2017-06-19,1074,1224,ESP Model Output (20170607)
2017-06-20,1053,1187
2017-06-21,1044,1169
2017-06-22,1017,1139
2017-06-23,961,1077
2017-06-24,904,1013
2017-06-25,841,954
2017-06-26,770,883
2017-06-27,709,808
2017-06-28,633,730
2017-06-29,594,686
2017-06-30,559,650
2017-07-01,523,606
2017-07-02,463,542
2017-07-03,425,510
2017-07-04,390,469
2017-07-05,367,435
2017-07-06,336,403
2017-07-07,317,388
2017-07-08,300,362
2017-07-09,282,341
2017-07-10,269,337
2017-07-11,255,319
2017-07-12,239,298
2017-07-13,228,284
2017-07-14,217,273
2017-07-15,207,261
2017-07-16,199,253
2017-07-17,191,243
2017-07-18,189,238
2017-07-19,179,228
2017-07-20,170,219
2017-07-21,164,211
2017-07-22,157,203
2017-07-23,150,196
2017-07-24,147,190
2017-07-25,142,183
2017-07-26,138,181
2017-07-27,134,176
2017-07-28,129,171
2017-07-29,126,166
2017-07-30,122,161
2017-07-31,118,156


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.