North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 09 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-10,2068,2456,Daily Model Output (20170609)
2017-06-11,1982,2336
2017-06-12,1726,2046
2017-06-13,1557,1839
2017-06-14,1276,1518
2017-06-15,1050,1260
2017-06-16,989,1175
2017-06-17,976,1142
2017-06-18,936,1084
2017-06-19,888,1021
2017-06-20,1074,1206,ESP Model Output (20170608)
2017-06-21,1036,1173
2017-06-22,1009,1141
2017-06-23,955,1074
2017-06-24,887,996
2017-06-25,834,947
2017-06-26,768,876
2017-06-27,708,811
2017-06-28,631,722
2017-06-29,588,683
2017-06-30,557,641
2017-07-01,513,593
2017-07-02,455,533
2017-07-03,415,493
2017-07-04,393,467
2017-07-05,364,434
2017-07-06,336,407
2017-07-07,316,383
2017-07-08,296,359
2017-07-09,280,343
2017-07-10,267,333
2017-07-11,253,314
2017-07-12,239,297
2017-07-13,227,284
2017-07-14,218,271
2017-07-15,207,263
2017-07-16,199,252
2017-07-17,191,241
2017-07-18,187,235
2017-07-19,179,226
2017-07-20,168,217
2017-07-21,162,209
2017-07-22,155,201
2017-07-23,150,194
2017-07-24,144,187
2017-07-25,139,182
2017-07-26,138,180
2017-07-27,133,175
2017-07-28,129,170
2017-07-29,125,166
2017-07-30,122,161
2017-07-31,118,156


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.