North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 10 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-11,1993,2308,Daily Model Output (20170610)
2017-06-12,1702,2039
2017-06-13,1543,1843
2017-06-14,1290,1548
2017-06-15,1080,1305
2017-06-16,1006,1209
2017-06-17,1004,1189
2017-06-18,1020,1190
2017-06-19,1036,1193
2017-06-20,1031,1176
2017-06-21,950,1080,ESP Model Output (20170609)
2017-06-22,919,1043
2017-06-23,866,986
2017-06-24,821,935
2017-06-25,774,889
2017-06-26,729,836
2017-06-27,682,781
2017-06-28,618,713
2017-06-29,580,673
2017-06-30,544,631
2017-07-01,507,590
2017-07-02,449,529
2017-07-03,416,493
2017-07-04,391,467
2017-07-05,359,434
2017-07-06,331,402
2017-07-07,311,378
2017-07-08,292,356
2017-07-09,275,338
2017-07-10,262,324
2017-07-11,252,315
2017-07-12,236,292
2017-07-13,225,279
2017-07-14,217,269
2017-07-15,204,260
2017-07-16,197,250
2017-07-17,189,240
2017-07-18,184,231
2017-07-19,175,222
2017-07-20,166,213
2017-07-21,160,205
2017-07-22,154,198
2017-07-23,148,191
2017-07-24,144,185
2017-07-25,139,179
2017-07-26,138,177
2017-07-27,133,174
2017-07-28,128,169
2017-07-29,125,165
2017-07-30,121,160
2017-07-31,117,155


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.