North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 11 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-12,1921,2209,Daily Model Output (20170611)
2017-06-13,1594,1901
2017-06-14,1292,1555
2017-06-15,1069,1298
2017-06-16,1010,1216
2017-06-17,1002,1190
2017-06-18,1020,1193
2017-06-19,1034,1195
2017-06-20,1028,1177
2017-06-21,992,1129
2017-06-22,956,1087,ESP Model Output (20170610)
2017-06-23,887,1014
2017-06-24,815,934
2017-06-25,762,880
2017-06-26,713,824
2017-06-27,656,768
2017-06-28,592,698
2017-06-29,545,643
2017-06-30,513,604
2017-07-01,482,569
2017-07-02,426,509
2017-07-03,395,475
2017-07-04,369,449
2017-07-05,344,420
2017-07-06,318,390
2017-07-07,299,369
2017-07-08,281,350
2017-07-09,267,334
2017-07-10,257,324
2017-07-11,244,309
2017-07-12,232,294
2017-07-13,221,279
2017-07-14,209,269
2017-07-15,199,257
2017-07-16,193,249
2017-07-17,184,239
2017-07-18,179,231
2017-07-19,171,222
2017-07-20,163,212
2017-07-21,157,204
2017-07-22,151,197
2017-07-23,146,191
2017-07-24,141,185
2017-07-25,136,179
2017-07-26,134,176
2017-07-27,129,172
2017-07-28,125,167
2017-07-29,122,164
2017-07-30,119,159
2017-07-31,115,153


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.