North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 12 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-13,1604,1883,Daily Model Output (20170612)
2017-06-14,1309,1571
2017-06-15,1105,1331
2017-06-16,1039,1243
2017-06-17,1021,1207
2017-06-18,1025,1198
2017-06-19,1030,1190
2017-06-20,1011,1160
2017-06-21,977,1116
2017-06-22,924,1053
2017-06-23,877,1013,ESP Model Output (20170611)
2017-06-24,802,924
2017-06-25,747,863
2017-06-26,684,795
2017-06-27,634,738
2017-06-28,576,677
2017-06-29,528,628
2017-06-30,492,584
2017-07-01,462,553
2017-07-02,414,498
2017-07-03,383,463
2017-07-04,358,437
2017-07-05,334,408
2017-07-06,309,381
2017-07-07,292,361
2017-07-08,275,342
2017-07-09,262,326
2017-07-10,249,315
2017-07-11,240,304
2017-07-12,228,290
2017-07-13,215,274
2017-07-14,205,263
2017-07-15,196,253
2017-07-16,190,244
2017-07-17,182,234
2017-07-18,174,226
2017-07-19,167,217
2017-07-20,161,208
2017-07-21,154,201
2017-07-22,149,194
2017-07-23,143,188
2017-07-24,138,182
2017-07-25,134,176
2017-07-26,132,175
2017-07-27,128,169
2017-07-28,124,166
2017-07-29,121,162
2017-07-30,118,158
2017-07-31,115,152


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.