North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 13 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-14,1403,1626,Daily Model Output (20170613)
2017-06-15,1178,1386
2017-06-16,1106,1293
2017-06-17,1067,1239
2017-06-18,1034,1194
2017-06-19,1013,1162
2017-06-20,998,1139
2017-06-21,966,1098
2017-06-22,915,1039
2017-06-23,855,972
2017-06-24,813,934,ESP Model Output (20170612)
2017-06-25,744,859
2017-06-26,682,796
2017-06-27,634,738
2017-06-28,572,676
2017-06-29,526,622
2017-06-30,486,577
2017-07-01,451,538
2017-07-02,406,491
2017-07-03,376,458
2017-07-04,351,429
2017-07-05,327,403
2017-07-06,307,380
2017-07-07,289,359
2017-07-08,273,341
2017-07-09,259,324
2017-07-10,246,311
2017-07-11,239,304
2017-07-12,228,289
2017-07-13,212,273
2017-07-14,202,261
2017-07-15,194,253
2017-07-16,189,243
2017-07-17,180,233
2017-07-18,174,224
2017-07-19,167,216
2017-07-20,159,208
2017-07-21,153,200
2017-07-22,147,193
2017-07-23,142,187
2017-07-24,138,181
2017-07-25,133,175
2017-07-26,132,174
2017-07-27,128,169
2017-07-28,124,165
2017-07-29,121,161
2017-07-30,117,157
2017-07-31,114,152


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.