North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 14 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-15,1169,1383,Daily Model Output (20170614)
2017-06-16,1090,1271
2017-06-17,1063,1229
2017-06-18,1049,1204
2017-06-19,1014,1159
2017-06-20,985,1122
2017-06-21,958,1087
2017-06-22,915,1037
2017-06-23,860,975
2017-06-24,791,901
2017-06-25,733,848,ESP Model Output (20170613)
2017-06-26,661,772
2017-06-27,610,714
2017-06-28,541,642
2017-06-29,502,599
2017-06-30,459,550
2017-07-01,427,514
2017-07-02,387,471
2017-07-03,360,441
2017-07-04,334,412
2017-07-05,314,389
2017-07-06,296,370
2017-07-07,280,350
2017-07-08,266,333
2017-07-09,252,317
2017-07-10,242,304
2017-07-11,230,297
2017-07-12,219,283
2017-07-13,209,268
2017-07-14,200,254
2017-07-15,191,248
2017-07-16,184,239
2017-07-17,176,229
2017-07-18,170,222
2017-07-19,163,213
2017-07-20,156,204
2017-07-21,150,197
2017-07-22,146,190
2017-07-23,140,185
2017-07-24,136,179
2017-07-25,131,173
2017-07-26,131,171
2017-07-27,126,167
2017-07-28,122,163
2017-07-29,119,159
2017-07-30,116,155
2017-07-31,113,150


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.