North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 15 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-16,1193,1384,Daily Model Output (20170615)
2017-06-17,1212,1374
2017-06-18,1248,1404
2017-06-19,1242,1391
2017-06-20,1207,1348
2017-06-21,1161,1295
2017-06-22,1094,1222
2017-06-23,1011,1132
2017-06-24,919,1033
2017-06-25,814,920
2017-06-26,664,774,ESP Model Output (20170614)
2017-06-27,609,715
2017-06-28,539,639
2017-06-29,502,597
2017-06-30,457,549
2017-07-01,419,507
2017-07-02,385,469
2017-07-03,355,436
2017-07-04,333,410
2017-07-05,312,388
2017-07-06,295,366
2017-07-07,279,348
2017-07-08,264,330
2017-07-09,252,316
2017-07-10,242,304
2017-07-11,230,292
2017-07-12,219,279
2017-07-13,209,268
2017-07-14,199,254
2017-07-15,190,243
2017-07-16,182,239
2017-07-17,175,229
2017-07-18,170,220
2017-07-19,163,212
2017-07-20,156,203
2017-07-21,149,196
2017-07-22,145,189
2017-07-23,140,184
2017-07-24,135,178
2017-07-25,131,172
2017-07-26,131,170
2017-07-27,127,167
2017-07-28,122,163
2017-07-29,119,159
2017-07-30,116,155
2017-07-31,113,150


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.