North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 16 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-17,1313,1468,Daily Model Output (20170616)
2017-06-18,1357,1506
2017-06-19,1342,1483
2017-06-20,1296,1430
2017-06-21,1234,1363
2017-06-22,1144,1267
2017-06-23,1025,1143
2017-06-24,892,1005
2017-06-25,764,873
2017-06-26,673,778
2017-06-27,657,762,ESP Model Output (20170615)
2017-06-28,578,678
2017-06-29,525,621
2017-06-30,472,564
2017-07-01,440,527
2017-07-02,402,486
2017-07-03,367,448
2017-07-04,347,425
2017-07-05,326,401
2017-07-06,308,380
2017-07-07,291,360
2017-07-08,276,342
2017-07-09,261,325
2017-07-10,253,314
2017-07-11,240,299
2017-07-12,227,286
2017-07-13,217,276
2017-07-14,206,261
2017-07-15,197,250
2017-07-16,189,243
2017-07-17,181,234
2017-07-18,174,226
2017-07-19,167,217
2017-07-20,160,208
2017-07-21,154,200
2017-07-22,149,193
2017-07-23,143,187
2017-07-24,138,181
2017-07-25,134,175
2017-07-26,132,172
2017-07-27,127,168
2017-07-28,124,164
2017-07-29,121,160
2017-07-30,117,157
2017-07-31,114,151


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.