North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 17 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-18,1348,1514,Daily Model Output (20170617)
2017-06-19,1336,1486
2017-06-20,1277,1420
2017-06-21,1224,1360
2017-06-22,1148,1278
2017-06-23,1038,1162
2017-06-24,917,1035
2017-06-25,805,918
2017-06-26,707,814
2017-06-27,619,722
2017-06-28,565,665,ESP Model Output (20170616)
2017-06-29,504,600
2017-06-30,449,540
2017-07-01,412,499
2017-07-02,382,466
2017-07-03,355,435
2017-07-04,332,410
2017-07-05,313,387
2017-07-06,297,368
2017-07-07,283,351
2017-07-08,268,334
2017-07-09,257,321
2017-07-10,246,308
2017-07-11,234,295
2017-07-12,223,282
2017-07-13,213,270
2017-07-14,203,257
2017-07-15,194,246
2017-07-16,186,238
2017-07-17,178,228
2017-07-18,171,220
2017-07-19,164,212
2017-07-20,157,204
2017-07-21,151,196
2017-07-22,146,189
2017-07-23,141,184
2017-07-24,136,177
2017-07-25,132,173
2017-07-26,128,170
2017-07-27,124,165
2017-07-28,120,161
2017-07-29,117,158
2017-07-30,114,155
2017-07-31,111,150


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.