North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 19 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-20,1453,1739,Daily Model Output (20170619)
2017-06-21,1416,1714
2017-06-22,1349,1592
2017-06-23,1231,1389
2017-06-24,1064,1193
2017-06-25,907,1029
2017-06-26,785,900
2017-06-27,702,812
2017-06-28,638,742
2017-06-29,572,670
2017-06-30,454,545,ESP Model Output (20170618)
2017-07-01,418,506
2017-07-02,385,469
2017-07-03,358,438
2017-07-04,335,412
2017-07-05,314,389
2017-07-06,296,368
2017-07-07,282,351
2017-07-08,268,334
2017-07-09,254,318
2017-07-10,244,306
2017-07-11,232,294
2017-07-12,221,281
2017-07-13,211,268
2017-07-14,201,256
2017-07-15,192,245
2017-07-16,185,236
2017-07-17,177,227
2017-07-18,170,221
2017-07-19,164,212
2017-07-20,157,203
2017-07-21,151,196
2017-07-22,146,189
2017-07-23,141,183
2017-07-24,135,176
2017-07-25,131,171
2017-07-26,127,169
2017-07-27,124,165
2017-07-28,120,161
2017-07-29,118,157
2017-07-30,115,154
2017-07-31,112,149


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.