North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 20 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-21,1395,1488,Daily Model Output (20170620)
2017-06-22,1345,1448
2017-06-23,1240,1353
2017-06-24,1090,1212
2017-06-25,931,1058
2017-06-26,803,924
2017-06-27,709,824
2017-06-28,638,747
2017-06-29,572,675
2017-06-30,507,604
2017-07-01,492,580,ESP Model Output (20170619)
2017-07-02,441,525
2017-07-03,401,482
2017-07-04,370,448
2017-07-05,346,420
2017-07-06,329,401
2017-07-07,309,378
2017-07-08,293,359
2017-07-09,277,341
2017-07-10,266,330
2017-07-11,252,314
2017-07-12,240,300
2017-07-13,230,287
2017-07-14,217,272
2017-07-15,207,261
2017-07-16,199,251
2017-07-17,190,240
2017-07-18,183,234
2017-07-19,175,224
2017-07-20,168,215
2017-07-21,161,205
2017-07-22,155,199
2017-07-23,150,192
2017-07-24,144,186
2017-07-25,139,180
2017-07-26,135,176
2017-07-27,131,171
2017-07-28,127,167
2017-07-29,124,163
2017-07-30,120,161
2017-07-31,117,155


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.