North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 23 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-24,1094,1239,Daily Model Output (20170623)
2017-06-25,937,1069
2017-06-26,817,936
2017-06-27,726,831
2017-06-28,650,746
2017-06-29,576,667
2017-06-30,509,597
2017-07-01,456,540
2017-07-02,416,497
2017-07-03,384,462
2017-07-04,366,443,ESP Model Output (20170622)
2017-07-05,343,417
2017-07-06,323,395
2017-07-07,305,374
2017-07-08,289,355
2017-07-09,274,337
2017-07-10,260,324
2017-07-11,247,312
2017-07-12,235,297
2017-07-13,225,284
2017-07-14,215,270
2017-07-15,204,258
2017-07-16,196,248
2017-07-17,187,238
2017-07-18,182,231
2017-07-19,174,221
2017-07-20,167,212
2017-07-21,160,204
2017-07-22,154,197
2017-07-23,149,191
2017-07-24,143,185
2017-07-25,138,179
2017-07-26,134,174
2017-07-27,130,170
2017-07-28,126,167
2017-07-29,123,163
2017-07-30,119,160
2017-07-31,116,154


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.