North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 26 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-27,728,872,Daily Model Output (20170626)
2017-06-28,650,770
2017-06-29,572,668
2017-06-30,506,578
2017-07-01,454,509
2017-07-02,415,467
2017-07-03,384,433
2017-07-04,358,405
2017-07-05,336,381
2017-07-06,316,359
2017-07-07,305,374,ESP Model Output (20170625)
2017-07-08,289,355
2017-07-09,273,337
2017-07-10,259,321
2017-07-11,246,306
2017-07-12,234,292
2017-07-13,223,279
2017-07-14,213,267
2017-07-15,203,255
2017-07-16,194,245
2017-07-17,186,235
2017-07-18,178,228
2017-07-19,171,219
2017-07-20,164,211
2017-07-21,158,203
2017-07-22,152,195
2017-07-23,146,190
2017-07-24,141,183
2017-07-25,136,178
2017-07-26,133,174
2017-07-27,129,169
2017-07-28,125,164
2017-07-29,122,160
2017-07-30,118,160
2017-07-31,115,153


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.