SLCESGCO COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECASTCENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH April 17, 2015 Seasonal outlook for maximum flows: YAMPA-DEERLODGE Comments: This outlook is based on flows from ESP with model states and snow conditions as of April 17. Seasonal precipitation was below average in the Yampa River Basin at 80 percent of normal as of April 1. April month to date precipitation in the basin is below normal. However, a storm system is currently impacting the basin. Temperatures for the first two weeks of April have been a mix of near, below and slightly below normal. As a result of the precipitation and temperature so far for April, the current snow water equivalent as of April 17 is 50% of median and has decreased as a percent of median since the first of the month. A complicated early spring storm is currently over the basin. A closed low pressure system is centered over southwest Colorado which is resulting in wrap around precipitation over the basin. The low will slowly track northeast out of Colorado by Saturday afternoon. The unsettled pattern continues through Sunday and Monday with a chance of more precipitation early in the week. Model guidance for the end of next week is showing yet another storm system entering the region however details of this system are not clear at this point. Short term (10 day) streamflow forecasts suggest decreasing flows over the next 10 days as a result of the cooler temperatures associated with the current progressive weather pattern. # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2015-04-17 - 2015-08-01 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River Discharge # Forecast Interval: 2015-04-17 - 2015-08-01 (MST) # Forecast Point: YAMPA-DEERLODGE Daily Peak -- Seasonal Maximum # # YAMPA-DEERLODGE # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 5871 6195 7339 9247 10658 CFSD Number of Days to Peak from: 2015-04-17 # # YAMPA-DEERLODGE # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 27 32 37 45 58 DAYS Number of Days Above: 8300 cfs # # YAMPA-DEERLODGE # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 3 11 DAYS Number of Days Above: 10000 cfs # # YAMPA-DEERLODGE # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 0 2 DAYS 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2015-05-15 - 2015-05-21 4227 5022 6033 6693 9103 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-16 - 2015-05-22 3830 5296 6344 7041 9103 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-17 - 2015-05-23 3902 5302 6514 7731 9125 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-18 - 2015-05-24 4233 5523 6514 7809 9662 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-19 - 2015-05-25 4782 5532 6514 7819 9599 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2015-05-13 - 2015-05-26 5275 5838 6556 8458 10021 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-14 - 2015-05-27 5446 5838 6556 8499 10021 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-15 - 2015-05-28 5328 5838 6593 8529 10021 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-16 - 2015-05-29 5328 5838 6593 8529 10021 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-17 - 2015-05-30 5338 5900 6593 8760 10131 CFSD 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2015-04-17 - 2015-08-01 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 1 week # Forecast Point: YAMPA-DEERLODGE # # YAMPA-DEERLODGE # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2015-04-17 - 2015-04-23 2591 2591 2591 2591 2591 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-18 - 2015-04-24 2591 2591 2591 2591 2591 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-19 - 2015-04-25 2253 2255 2258 2261 2480 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-20 - 2015-04-26 2253 2258 2262 2651 4106 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-21 - 2015-04-27 2253 2258 2262 2651 4106 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-22 - 2015-04-28 2023 2040 2195 2651 4106 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-23 - 2015-04-29 2029 2044 2291 2768 4159 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-24 - 2015-04-30 2035 2059 2364 2768 4165 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-25 - 2015-05-01 2035 2126 2495 2991 4515 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-26 - 2015-05-02 2035 2171 2495 3356 5028 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-27 - 2015-05-03 1831 2243 2647 3559 5118 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-28 - 2015-05-04 1831 2376 2827 3893 5375 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-29 - 2015-05-05 1983 2332 3236 4228 5706 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-30 - 2015-05-06 1984 2402 3287 5178 6179 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-01 - 2015-05-07 2126 2389 3634 5447 6164 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-02 - 2015-05-08 2166 2574 3800 5447 6266 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-03 - 2015-05-09 2390 2815 3800 5475 6309 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-04 - 2015-05-10 2532 3374 3946 5475 6524 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-05 - 2015-05-11 2851 3341 4018 5475 6524 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-06 - 2015-05-12 2853 3770 4415 5587 6524 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-07 - 2015-05-13 3148 3926 4732 5959 7231 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-08 - 2015-05-14 3148 3948 4890 6108 7259 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-09 - 2015-05-15 3250 3974 5036 6394 7271 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-10 - 2015-05-16 3376 4278 5205 6613 7307 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-11 - 2015-05-17 3279 4382 5766 6371 7307 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-12 - 2015-05-18 3382 4382 5816 6667 7307 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-13 - 2015-05-19 3624 4402 5881 6842 7473 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-14 - 2015-05-20 3987 4968 5817 6860 8867 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-15 - 2015-05-21 4227 5022 6033 6693 9103 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-16 - 2015-05-22 3830 5296 6344 7041 9103 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-17 - 2015-05-23 3902 5302 6514 7731 9125 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-18 - 2015-05-24 4233 5523 6514 7809 9662 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-19 - 2015-05-25 4782 5532 6514 7819 9599 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-20 - 2015-05-26 4944 5554 6415 8458 9603 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-21 - 2015-05-27 5264 5434 6423 8499 9603 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-22 - 2015-05-28 5163 5304 6430 8434 9603 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-23 - 2015-05-29 4946 5164 6255 8434 9603 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-24 - 2015-05-30 4680 5165 6211 8585 10059 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-25 - 2015-05-31 4281 4925 6255 8744 10234 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-26 - 2015-06-01 3705 4635 6163 8758 10234 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-27 - 2015-06-02 3840 4337 6163 8758 10194 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-28 - 2015-06-03 3893 4224 6073 8336 10130 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-29 - 2015-06-04 3884 4224 5793 7903 10151 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-30 - 2015-06-05 3528 4224 5584 7975 10209 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-31 - 2015-06-06 3487 4224 5575 8025 10191 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-01 - 2015-06-07 3173 4156 5332 8025 10397 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-02 - 2015-06-08 3056 3954 5360 8025 9416 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-03 - 2015-06-09 3008 3584 5093 7978 9447 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-04 - 2015-06-10 2800 3487 5050 7937 9804 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-05 - 2015-06-11 2780 3297 5050 7458 9804 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-06 - 2015-06-12 2663 3215 4958 6725 9803 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-07 - 2015-06-13 2609 3083 4951 6707 9744 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-08 - 2015-06-14 2616 3063 4690 6494 9744 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-09 - 2015-06-15 2616 3038 4222 6483 9744 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-10 - 2015-06-16 2603 2882 3903 6259 8861 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-11 - 2015-06-17 2372 2851 3802 6259 8164 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-12 - 2015-06-18 2358 2840 3576 6052 7539 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-13 - 2015-06-19 2199 2551 3736 5467 7500 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-14 - 2015-06-20 2097 2270 3569 5312 7423 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-15 - 2015-06-21 1999 2140 3332 5076 7425 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-16 - 2015-06-22 1834 1963 3216 4712 7327 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-17 - 2015-06-23 1799 1904 3053 4302 7288 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-18 - 2015-06-24 1750 1876 2928 4253 7110 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-19 - 2015-06-25 1635 1795 2811 3980 6697 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-20 - 2015-06-26 1451 1792 2694 3561 5856 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-21 - 2015-06-27 1441 1688 2591 3325 5119 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-22 - 2015-06-28 1327 1530 2377 3272 5089 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-23 - 2015-06-29 1219 1516 2310 3092 4797 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-24 - 2015-06-30 1135 1440 2229 2940 4427 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-25 - 2015-07-01 1024 1357 2015 2736 4176 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-26 - 2015-07-02 958 1328 1814 2627 3753 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-27 - 2015-07-03 903 1230 1710 2553 3440 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-28 - 2015-07-04 862 1128 1603 2485 3367 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-29 - 2015-07-05 818 1037 1489 2372 3204 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-30 - 2015-07-06 760 959 1344 2279 2926 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-01 - 2015-07-07 700 905 1251 2220 2777 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-02 - 2015-07-08 656 866 1222 1981 2695 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-03 - 2015-07-09 618 823 1189 1863 2593 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-04 - 2015-07-10 543 699 1089 1723 2566 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-05 - 2015-07-11 497 638 1037 1606 2561 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-06 - 2015-07-12 479 602 984 1586 2434 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-07 - 2015-07-13 461 565 939 1521 2234 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-08 - 2015-07-14 450 543 883 1252 2038 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-09 - 2015-07-15 430 522 830 1170 1853 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-10 - 2015-07-16 414 509 802 1082 1670 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-11 - 2015-07-17 398 490 775 1056 1502 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-12 - 2015-07-18 391 473 728 1036 1368 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-13 - 2015-07-19 389 463 688 998 1330 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-14 - 2015-07-20 381 454 637 883 1321 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-15 - 2015-07-21 370 430 596 805 1160 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-16 - 2015-07-22 358 418 569 796 1059 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-17 - 2015-07-23 347 406 552 766 983 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-18 - 2015-07-24 335 391 555 687 950 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-19 - 2015-07-25 328 366 525 648 950 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-20 - 2015-07-26 322 362 501 614 917 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-21 - 2015-07-27 314 358 475 588 846 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-22 - 2015-07-28 301 359 454 568 788 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-23 - 2015-07-29 297 347 435 539 767 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-24 - 2015-07-30 296 336 421 508 767 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-25 - 2015-07-31 285 321 406 485 732 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-26 - 2015-08-01 279 309 390 484 620 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2015-04-17 - 2015-08-01 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 2 week # Forecast Point: YAMPA-DEERLODGE # # YAMPA-DEERLODGE # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2015-04-17 - 2015-04-30 2591 2591 2591 2768 4165 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-18 - 2015-05-01 2591 2591 2591 2991 4515 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-19 - 2015-05-02 2258 2262 2495 3356 5028 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-20 - 2015-05-03 2260 2371 2772 3559 5118 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-21 - 2015-05-04 2262 2456 2831 4221 5702 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-22 - 2015-05-05 2194 2456 3236 4479 5825 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-23 - 2015-05-06 2194 2478 3338 5320 6499 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-24 - 2015-05-07 2302 2508 3647 5475 6625 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-25 - 2015-05-08 2488 2709 3905 5475 7259 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-26 - 2015-05-09 2517 2928 4231 5583 7471 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-27 - 2015-05-10 2532 3374 4228 5924 7472 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-28 - 2015-05-11 2994 3374 4343 5587 6542 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-29 - 2015-05-12 3018 3807 4415 5940 6542 CFSD # Interval: 2015-04-30 - 2015-05-13 3148 3926 4819 6136 7231 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-01 - 2015-05-14 3148 3974 5239 6108 7259 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-02 - 2015-05-15 3376 4021 5482 6394 7271 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-03 - 2015-05-16 3670 4435 5363 6613 7549 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-04 - 2015-05-17 3670 4791 5952 6613 7549 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-05 - 2015-05-18 3670 4903 6008 6766 7549 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-06 - 2015-05-19 3965 4903 6008 6988 7567 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-07 - 2015-05-20 4022 5091 6008 7302 8867 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-08 - 2015-05-21 4382 5112 6224 7302 9103 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-09 - 2015-05-22 4451 5511 6404 7302 9103 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-10 - 2015-05-23 4778 5838 6556 7731 9125 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-11 - 2015-05-24 4797 5838 6514 7809 9662 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-12 - 2015-05-25 5127 5744 6556 7819 9980 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-13 - 2015-05-26 5275 5838 6556 8458 10021 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-14 - 2015-05-27 5446 5838 6556 8499 10021 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-15 - 2015-05-28 5328 5838 6593 8529 10021 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-16 - 2015-05-29 5328 5838 6593 8529 10021 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-17 - 2015-05-30 5338 5900 6593 8760 10131 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-18 - 2015-05-31 5344 5987 6593 8905 10234 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-19 - 2015-06-01 5344 5942 6593 9105 10234 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-20 - 2015-06-02 5329 5914 6556 9243 10234 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-21 - 2015-06-03 5315 5713 6546 9243 10234 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-22 - 2015-06-04 5234 5420 6546 8871 10234 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-23 - 2015-06-05 4997 5252 6472 8871 10234 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-24 - 2015-06-06 4904 5204 6312 8871 10234 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-25 - 2015-06-07 4281 4925 6287 8809 10412 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-26 - 2015-06-08 3905 4864 6163 8758 10658 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-27 - 2015-06-09 3905 4864 6163 8758 10658 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-28 - 2015-06-10 3905 4490 6073 8336 10658 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-29 - 2015-06-11 3884 4490 5823 8336 10658 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-30 - 2015-06-12 3528 4490 5734 8088 10658 CFSD # Interval: 2015-05-31 - 2015-06-13 3487 4490 5896 8025 10658 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-01 - 2015-06-14 3173 4156 5694 8025 10644 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-02 - 2015-06-15 3056 3954 5531 8025 9853 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-03 - 2015-06-16 3008 3584 5208 7978 9821 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-04 - 2015-06-17 2863 3503 5050 7937 9804 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-05 - 2015-06-18 2842 3297 5050 7674 9804 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-06 - 2015-06-19 2778 3215 5025 7369 9803 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-07 - 2015-06-20 2616 3135 5045 7034 9744 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-08 - 2015-06-21 2616 3135 4930 7374 9744 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-09 - 2015-06-22 2616 3102 4615 6773 9744 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-10 - 2015-06-23 2603 3015 4180 6513 8861 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-11 - 2015-06-24 2372 3002 3879 6491 8199 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-12 - 2015-06-25 2358 2867 3802 6259 7902 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-13 - 2015-06-26 2199 2551 3736 6139 7876 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-14 - 2015-06-27 2097 2270 3569 5314 7577 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-15 - 2015-06-28 1999 2140 3332 5076 7425 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-16 - 2015-06-29 1834 1963 3216 4712 7327 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-17 - 2015-06-30 1799 1904 3053 4302 7288 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-18 - 2015-07-01 1750 1876 2928 4253 7110 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-19 - 2015-07-02 1635 1795 2811 3980 6697 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-20 - 2015-07-03 1451 1792 2694 3561 5856 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-21 - 2015-07-04 1441 1688 2591 3325 5119 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-22 - 2015-07-05 1327 1530 2377 3272 5089 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-23 - 2015-07-06 1219 1516 2310 3092 4797 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-24 - 2015-07-07 1135 1440 2229 2940 4427 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-25 - 2015-07-08 1024 1357 2015 2736 4176 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-26 - 2015-07-09 958 1328 1814 2627 3753 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-27 - 2015-07-10 903 1230 1710 2553 3440 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-28 - 2015-07-11 862 1128 1603 2485 3367 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-29 - 2015-07-12 818 1037 1489 2372 3204 CFSD # Interval: 2015-06-30 - 2015-07-13 760 959 1344 2279 2926 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-01 - 2015-07-14 700 905 1251 2220 2777 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-02 - 2015-07-15 656 866 1222 1981 2695 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-03 - 2015-07-16 618 823 1189 1863 2593 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-04 - 2015-07-17 543 699 1089 1723 2566 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-05 - 2015-07-18 502 638 1037 1606 2561 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-06 - 2015-07-19 483 602 984 1586 2434 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-07 - 2015-07-20 466 565 939 1521 2234 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-08 - 2015-07-21 450 543 883 1252 2038 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-09 - 2015-07-22 430 522 837 1170 1853 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-10 - 2015-07-23 414 509 802 1082 1670 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-11 - 2015-07-24 398 492 775 1056 1502 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-12 - 2015-07-25 391 475 728 1036 1368 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-13 - 2015-07-26 389 463 688 998 1330 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-14 - 2015-07-27 381 454 637 883 1321 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-15 - 2015-07-28 370 430 596 805 1160 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-16 - 2015-07-29 358 418 584 796 1059 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-17 - 2015-07-30 347 406 578 766 983 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-18 - 2015-07-31 335 391 555 687 950 CFSD # Interval: 2015-07-19 - 2015-08-01 328 379 525 648 950 CFSD Please feel free to contact the forecaster at ashley.nielson@noaa.gov Issued by: A.Nielson NNNN $$