SLCESGCO COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECASTCENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH April 18, 2016 Seasonal outlook for maximum flows: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK Comments: This outlook is based on flows from ESP with model states as of April 18. The first week of April was warm and dry which resulted in snowmelt and increased streamflows in the Yampa River basin. A large closed low storm system followed for the second week of the month bringing precipitation and below normal temperatures. As a result, month to date precipitation for the first half of April is 100% of average for the basin as a whole. The current snow water equivalent as of April 18 is 100 percent of median in the Yampa River Basin. However, many of the high elevation SNOTEL locations are lower as a percent of median than the basin wide median. This is the result of the lack of high elevation snowfall accumulation during the fall. Temperatures for April so far have been a mix of above and below normal which is typical of an active spring pattern. The closed low storm system that has been impacting the region will finally exit the region by tomorrow. A ridge of high pressure will build for remainder of the week bringing warm temperatures and additional snowmelt. This ridge will be followed by another storm system for late next weekend into early next week. The current peak to date for the Yampa-Deerlodge was 7,690 cfs on 4/16 which resulted from snowmelt during the last warm period. 10 day stream flow forecasts indicate a decrease in flows over the next few days before flow start to increase again on 4/23. # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2016-04-18 - 2016-08-01 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River Discharge # Forecast Interval: 2016-04-18 - 2016-08-01 (MST) # Forecast Point: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK Daily Peak -- Seasonal Maximum # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 9514 9777 11035 12938 14886 CFSD Number of Days to Peak from: 2016-04-18 # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 11 30 36 51 57 DAYS Number of Days Above: 10000 cfs # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 2 16 23 DAYS Number of Days Above: 14000 cfs # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 0 2 DAYS 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2016-05-27 - 2016-06-02 6482 7552 9666 11848 13288 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-28 - 2016-06-03 6670 7439 9666 11055 13058 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-29 - 2016-06-04 6883 7439 9723 11252 12975 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-30 - 2016-06-05 6879 7501 9622 11497 13001 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-31 - 2016-06-06 6879 7518 9251 11554 13309 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2016-05-15 - 2016-05-28 7774 9338 9891 11601 12833 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-16 - 2016-05-29 7774 9418 10106 11601 12833 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-17 - 2016-05-30 7951 9480 10336 11642 12886 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-18 - 2016-05-31 8047 9480 10175 12001 13112 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-19 - 2016-06-01 8047 9292 10293 12001 13768 CFSD 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2016-04-18 - 2016-08-01 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 1 week # Forecast Point: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2016-04-18 - 2016-04-24 7369 7369 7369 7369 7369 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-19 - 2016-04-25 5678 5678 5678 6776 8234 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-20 - 2016-04-26 5580 6120 6931 7808 10904 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-21 - 2016-04-27 6035 6519 7154 8358 11921 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-22 - 2016-04-28 6038 6613 7309 9162 12432 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-23 - 2016-04-29 6075 6747 7501 9162 12579 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-24 - 2016-04-30 6082 6835 7501 9162 12579 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-25 - 2016-05-01 6082 6835 7556 9162 12579 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-26 - 2016-05-02 6082 6922 7793 9162 12579 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-27 - 2016-05-03 6082 6770 7793 9303 12579 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-28 - 2016-05-04 5997 6653 7638 9303 12586 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-29 - 2016-05-05 5972 6585 7183 9626 11439 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-30 - 2016-05-06 5651 6483 7644 8961 11742 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-01 - 2016-05-07 5401 6382 7370 8961 11601 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-02 - 2016-05-08 4888 6255 7682 9704 11649 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-03 - 2016-05-09 4789 6249 7795 9623 11649 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-04 - 2016-05-10 5276 6272 7563 9606 11649 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-05 - 2016-05-11 5367 6031 7471 9144 11649 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-06 - 2016-05-12 5762 6419 7618 9542 11649 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-07 - 2016-05-13 5825 6642 7757 9786 11354 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-08 - 2016-05-14 5825 6551 7618 9786 11340 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-09 - 2016-05-15 5798 6523 7694 9886 11306 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-10 - 2016-05-16 5825 6820 8039 9958 11162 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-11 - 2016-05-17 5474 6869 8319 9523 11534 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-12 - 2016-05-18 5289 6636 8784 9523 11534 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-13 - 2016-05-19 5300 6625 8916 9638 11534 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-14 - 2016-05-20 5882 6930 8840 10070 11716 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-15 - 2016-05-21 5822 7175 8804 9997 11677 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-16 - 2016-05-22 5323 7641 9308 9997 11677 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-17 - 2016-05-23 5323 8414 9531 10256 11697 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-18 - 2016-05-24 5323 8441 9632 10409 12525 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-19 - 2016-05-25 5935 8816 9632 10409 12270 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-20 - 2016-05-26 6920 8798 9710 10921 12302 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-21 - 2016-05-27 7766 8463 9632 11448 12586 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-22 - 2016-05-28 7735 8652 9544 11004 12586 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-23 - 2016-05-29 7707 8216 9628 11004 12586 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-24 - 2016-05-30 7629 8014 9680 11601 12641 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-25 - 2016-05-31 7118 7615 9540 11890 13112 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-26 - 2016-06-01 6642 7324 9278 11890 13318 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-27 - 2016-06-02 6482 7552 9666 11848 13288 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-28 - 2016-06-03 6670 7439 9666 11055 13058 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-29 - 2016-06-04 6883 7439 9723 11252 12975 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-30 - 2016-06-05 6879 7501 9622 11497 13001 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-31 - 2016-06-06 6879 7518 9251 11554 13309 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-01 - 2016-06-07 6974 7439 9183 11719 13468 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-02 - 2016-06-08 6669 7499 8963 11734 13727 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-03 - 2016-06-09 6641 7575 9118 11161 14008 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-04 - 2016-06-10 6224 7291 9118 11161 14008 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-05 - 2016-06-11 5846 6976 9111 10660 14008 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-06 - 2016-06-12 5822 6976 8754 10660 14008 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-07 - 2016-06-13 5780 6639 8444 10537 14008 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-08 - 2016-06-14 5604 6435 8196 10692 14008 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-09 - 2016-06-15 5544 6399 7975 11110 13947 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-10 - 2016-06-16 5427 5994 7555 10803 13549 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-11 - 2016-06-17 5427 5917 7473 10159 14379 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-12 - 2016-06-18 5184 5723 7358 9454 13374 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-13 - 2016-06-19 4976 5535 7016 8873 12063 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-14 - 2016-06-20 4594 4940 6950 8581 11909 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-15 - 2016-06-21 4294 4546 6694 8664 11154 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-16 - 2016-06-22 3997 4175 6299 8637 10947 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-17 - 2016-06-23 3721 4011 6034 8348 10903 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-18 - 2016-06-24 3503 3873 5583 7857 10464 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-19 - 2016-06-25 3070 3749 5295 7035 10399 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-20 - 2016-06-26 2856 3662 5036 6497 9685 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-21 - 2016-06-27 2801 3378 4710 6062 9635 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-22 - 2016-06-28 2696 3135 4523 5996 9149 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-23 - 2016-06-29 2557 3003 4349 5519 8759 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-24 - 2016-06-30 2270 2847 4168 5261 8205 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-25 - 2016-07-01 2144 2686 3712 4935 7714 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-26 - 2016-07-02 2049 2578 3430 4812 6957 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-27 - 2016-07-03 1920 2320 3307 4559 6210 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-28 - 2016-07-04 1774 2260 3237 4432 5682 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-29 - 2016-07-05 1618 2127 2938 4286 5423 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-30 - 2016-07-06 1450 1941 2730 4056 5004 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-01 - 2016-07-07 1322 1828 2569 3932 4575 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-02 - 2016-07-08 1210 1738 2438 3626 4224 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-03 - 2016-07-09 1045 1537 2214 3227 3987 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-04 - 2016-07-10 969 1399 2055 3036 3903 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-05 - 2016-07-11 966 1341 1954 2851 3897 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-06 - 2016-07-12 940 1248 1833 2776 3757 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-07 - 2016-07-13 893 1139 1749 2625 3421 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-08 - 2016-07-14 827 1051 1650 2274 3141 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-09 - 2016-07-15 773 966 1514 2065 2880 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-10 - 2016-07-16 744 906 1386 1908 2612 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-11 - 2016-07-17 707 844 1308 1787 2349 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-12 - 2016-07-18 673 792 1255 1777 2143 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-13 - 2016-07-19 646 782 1171 1665 1959 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-14 - 2016-07-20 621 752 1074 1453 1921 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-15 - 2016-07-21 593 717 992 1367 1706 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-16 - 2016-07-22 570 686 931 1342 1552 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-17 - 2016-07-23 546 651 880 1156 1442 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-18 - 2016-07-24 521 601 832 1080 1430 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-19 - 2016-07-25 501 569 798 1011 1367 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-20 - 2016-07-26 484 543 743 947 1282 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-21 - 2016-07-27 467 526 701 888 1271 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-22 - 2016-07-28 448 534 664 865 1264 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-23 - 2016-07-29 435 511 638 850 1257 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-24 - 2016-07-30 429 490 606 808 1250 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-25 - 2016-07-31 410 464 577 757 966 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-26 - 2016-08-01 395 443 552 740 845 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2016-04-18 - 2016-08-01 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 2 week # Forecast Point: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2016-04-18 - 2016-05-01 7369 7369 7556 9162 12579 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-19 - 2016-05-02 6082 6922 7793 9162 12579 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-20 - 2016-05-03 6082 6922 7824 9551 12579 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-21 - 2016-05-04 6082 6936 7825 9551 12586 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-22 - 2016-05-05 6357 6936 7864 9719 12715 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-23 - 2016-05-06 6579 7130 7953 10227 14043 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-24 - 2016-05-07 6629 7130 8037 10227 14043 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-25 - 2016-05-08 6629 7130 8239 10227 14043 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-26 - 2016-05-09 6638 7130 8388 10302 14043 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-27 - 2016-05-10 6616 7129 8393 10302 13737 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-28 - 2016-05-11 6615 6948 8133 10302 12894 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-29 - 2016-05-12 6530 6948 8133 10232 12336 CFSD # Interval: 2016-04-30 - 2016-05-13 6307 6888 8330 10302 11742 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-01 - 2016-05-14 6307 6936 8323 10276 11649 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-02 - 2016-05-15 6279 6948 8324 10276 11649 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-03 - 2016-05-16 5918 7381 8475 10383 11649 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-04 - 2016-05-17 6319 7390 8858 10438 12301 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-05 - 2016-05-18 5903 7432 9147 10438 12336 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-06 - 2016-05-19 6485 7437 9493 10438 12336 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-07 - 2016-05-20 6639 7549 9538 10808 12033 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-08 - 2016-05-21 6222 7549 9538 10503 11766 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-09 - 2016-05-22 6952 7763 9544 10478 11766 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-10 - 2016-05-23 6952 8560 9714 10409 11766 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-11 - 2016-05-24 7012 8441 9891 10710 12525 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-12 - 2016-05-25 6684 8907 10057 10710 12801 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-13 - 2016-05-26 7017 8941 10175 11334 12833 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-14 - 2016-05-27 7766 9194 10175 11575 12833 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-15 - 2016-05-28 7774 9338 9891 11601 12833 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-16 - 2016-05-29 7774 9418 10106 11601 12833 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-17 - 2016-05-30 7951 9480 10336 11642 12886 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-18 - 2016-05-31 8047 9480 10175 12001 13112 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-19 - 2016-06-01 8047 9292 10293 12001 13768 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-20 - 2016-06-02 8047 8977 10336 12001 13318 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-21 - 2016-06-03 7998 8879 10336 12001 13318 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-22 - 2016-06-04 7820 8803 10336 11890 13318 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-23 - 2016-06-05 7750 8244 10336 11890 13318 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-24 - 2016-06-06 7652 8172 10336 11890 13700 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-25 - 2016-06-07 7516 8078 9940 11890 13700 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-26 - 2016-06-08 7276 7892 9835 11890 13727 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-27 - 2016-06-09 7129 7892 9776 11890 14008 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-28 - 2016-06-10 7120 7982 9776 11828 14008 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-29 - 2016-06-11 7120 8093 9776 11828 14284 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-30 - 2016-06-12 7090 8093 9746 11828 14284 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-31 - 2016-06-13 7090 8093 9647 11828 14284 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-01 - 2016-06-14 7054 7820 9404 11828 14284 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-02 - 2016-06-15 6669 7820 9201 12045 14284 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-03 - 2016-06-16 6641 7575 9201 11693 14284 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-04 - 2016-06-17 6224 7291 9201 11693 14609 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-05 - 2016-06-18 5846 6976 9111 11486 14569 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-06 - 2016-06-19 5822 6976 8754 11288 14569 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-07 - 2016-06-20 5780 6942 8586 11127 14569 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-08 - 2016-06-21 5606 6914 8339 11178 14569 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-09 - 2016-06-22 5577 6555 8168 11162 14509 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-10 - 2016-06-23 5542 6313 7748 10916 14379 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-11 - 2016-06-24 5542 6044 7707 10681 14379 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-12 - 2016-06-25 5310 5994 7552 9902 13374 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-13 - 2016-06-26 4976 5535 7235 9773 12063 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-14 - 2016-06-27 4594 4940 6950 9228 11912 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-15 - 2016-06-28 4294 4546 6694 8765 11154 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-16 - 2016-06-29 3997 4175 6299 8637 10947 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-17 - 2016-06-30 3721 4011 6034 8348 10947 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-18 - 2016-07-01 3503 3873 5583 7857 10508 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-19 - 2016-07-02 3070 3749 5295 7035 10432 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-20 - 2016-07-03 2856 3662 5036 6497 9685 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-21 - 2016-07-04 2801 3378 4710 6062 9635 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-22 - 2016-07-05 2696 3135 4523 5996 9149 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-23 - 2016-07-06 2557 3003 4349 5519 8759 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-24 - 2016-07-07 2270 2847 4168 5261 8205 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-25 - 2016-07-08 2144 2686 3712 4935 7714 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-26 - 2016-07-09 2049 2578 3430 4812 6957 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-27 - 2016-07-10 1920 2320 3307 4559 6210 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-28 - 2016-07-11 1774 2260 3237 4432 5682 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-29 - 2016-07-12 1618 2127 2938 4286 5423 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-30 - 2016-07-13 1450 1941 2730 4056 5004 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-01 - 2016-07-14 1322 1828 2569 3932 4575 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-02 - 2016-07-15 1210 1738 2438 3626 4224 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-03 - 2016-07-16 1045 1537 2214 3227 3987 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-04 - 2016-07-17 969 1399 2055 3036 3903 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-05 - 2016-07-18 966 1341 1954 2851 3897 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-06 - 2016-07-19 940 1248 1833 2776 3757 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-07 - 2016-07-20 893 1139 1749 2625 3421 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-08 - 2016-07-21 827 1051 1650 2274 3141 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-09 - 2016-07-22 773 966 1514 2065 2880 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-10 - 2016-07-23 744 906 1386 1908 2612 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-11 - 2016-07-24 707 844 1308 1787 2349 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-12 - 2016-07-25 673 792 1255 1777 2143 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-13 - 2016-07-26 646 782 1171 1665 1959 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-14 - 2016-07-27 621 752 1074 1453 1921 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-15 - 2016-07-28 593 717 992 1367 1706 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-16 - 2016-07-29 570 686 931 1342 1552 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-17 - 2016-07-30 546 651 880 1156 1442 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-18 - 2016-07-31 521 601 837 1080 1430 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-19 - 2016-08-01 501 569 798 1011 1367 CFSD Please feel free to contact the forecaster at ashley.nielson@noaa.gov Issued by: A.Nielson NNNN $$