SLCESGCO COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECASTCENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH April 18, 2017 Seasonal outlook for maximum flows: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK Comments: This outlook is based on flows from ESP with model states as of April 18. The first half of April has been dry with slightly above normal temperatures. There has been significant snowmelt in the basin and the current snow water equivalent is at 71% of median. Many of the SNOTEL locations below 9000ft have had significant melt or are already melted out. The remaining snow exists only at the highest elevations. As a result of the snowmelt, streamflows have continued to increase across the basin. The current peak to date at the Yampa River- Deerlodge is 5,090 cfs on 4/17. Current weather models are forecasting an unsettled weather pattern with chances for precipitation for rest of the week. A stronger and colder storm with a better chance for precipitation is forecast over the basin for Thursday and Friday. As a result of continued snowmelt and a chances for precipitation, the 10 day streamflow forecasts are indicating flows may reach ~7000-7500 cfs before decreasing back to current levels. # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2017-04-18 - 2017-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River Discharge # Forecast Interval: 2017-04-18 - 2017-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Point: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK Daily Peak -- Seasonal Maximum # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 7211 8275 9179 11572 13465 CFSD Number of Days to Peak from: 2017-04-18 # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 4 20 35 43 53 DAYS Number of Days Above: 10000 cfs # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 4 10 DAYS Number of Days Above: 14000 cfs # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 0 0 DAYS Number of Days Above: 16000 cfs # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 0 0 DAYS 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2017-05-17 - 2017-05-23 5106 6864 7671 8613 10280 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-18 - 2017-05-24 5284 6889 7967 9016 11438 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-19 - 2017-05-25 5990 6864 8098 9327 11248 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-20 - 2017-05-26 6320 6889 7920 9327 11321 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-21 - 2017-05-27 6320 6889 7920 9327 11321 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2017-05-15 - 2017-05-28 6320 7352 8411 9455 11438 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-16 - 2017-05-29 6320 7213 8411 10034 11438 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-17 - 2017-05-30 6579 7356 8413 10235 11542 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-18 - 2017-05-31 6579 7324 8413 10235 11697 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-19 - 2017-06-01 6534 7213 8325 10604 11668 CFSD 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2017-04-18 - 2017-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 1 week # Forecast Point: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2017-04-18 - 2017-04-24 6089 6110 6247 7816 9224 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-19 - 2017-04-25 6089 6110 6247 7816 9224 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-20 - 2017-04-26 6089 6110 6302 8222 9904 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-21 - 2017-04-27 6089 6110 6575 8394 9904 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-22 - 2017-04-28 5423 5565 6355 8600 9937 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-23 - 2017-04-29 4463 5395 6170 7045 10577 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-24 - 2017-04-30 4375 5025 5621 6575 10577 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-25 - 2017-05-01 4213 4739 5617 6554 10154 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-26 - 2017-05-02 4361 4739 5799 6554 10154 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-27 - 2017-05-03 4456 4754 5893 6575 10154 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-28 - 2017-05-04 4189 4754 5612 6600 9388 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-29 - 2017-05-05 4098 4532 5533 6970 9102 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-30 - 2017-05-06 3687 4530 5421 6653 8883 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-01 - 2017-05-07 3640 4383 5421 6600 8529 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-02 - 2017-05-08 3756 4383 5490 6771 8967 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-03 - 2017-05-09 3687 4551 5533 6600 8967 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-04 - 2017-05-10 4213 4936 5483 6778 8967 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-05 - 2017-05-11 4360 5068 5490 6826 8967 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-06 - 2017-05-12 4672 5214 5821 7891 8967 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-07 - 2017-05-13 4672 5233 6247 7911 9102 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-08 - 2017-05-14 4634 5206 6311 7911 8999 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-09 - 2017-05-15 4634 5562 6357 8064 8999 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-10 - 2017-05-16 4672 5562 6810 8122 8999 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-11 - 2017-05-17 4278 5689 7167 8085 8999 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-12 - 2017-05-18 4449 5689 7442 8219 8999 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-13 - 2017-05-19 4726 5918 7442 8411 9070 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-14 - 2017-05-20 5326 6079 7442 8411 9907 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-15 - 2017-05-21 5390 6639 7578 8411 10136 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-16 - 2017-05-22 4729 6885 7623 8411 10136 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-17 - 2017-05-23 5106 6864 7671 8613 10280 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-18 - 2017-05-24 5284 6889 7967 9016 11438 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-19 - 2017-05-25 5990 6864 8098 9327 11248 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-20 - 2017-05-26 6320 6889 7920 9327 11321 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-21 - 2017-05-27 6320 6889 7920 9327 11321 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-22 - 2017-05-28 6244 6889 7920 9305 11254 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-23 - 2017-05-29 6180 6439 7920 10014 11254 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-24 - 2017-05-30 5925 6373 7920 10014 11390 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-25 - 2017-05-31 5379 6014 7799 10231 11668 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-26 - 2017-06-01 5168 5918 7787 10235 11576 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-27 - 2017-06-02 5124 5914 7799 10099 11230 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-28 - 2017-06-03 5121 5914 7799 9828 11232 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-29 - 2017-06-04 5121 5914 7623 9828 11429 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-30 - 2017-06-05 5086 5712 7387 10099 11429 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-31 - 2017-06-06 4811 5850 7381 10099 11386 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-01 - 2017-06-07 4787 5277 7141 10099 11312 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-02 - 2017-06-08 4535 5204 7129 10099 11028 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-03 - 2017-06-09 4455 5284 7129 9936 11198 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-04 - 2017-06-10 4235 5125 7028 9936 11390 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-05 - 2017-06-11 4187 5054 7017 9258 11515 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-06 - 2017-06-12 4322 4866 6613 9133 11515 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-07 - 2017-06-13 4228 4686 6457 8759 11515 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-08 - 2017-06-14 4050 4504 6275 8669 11515 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-09 - 2017-06-15 3991 4448 6058 8673 11515 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-10 - 2017-06-16 3823 4373 5690 8275 10538 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-11 - 2017-06-17 3718 4329 5690 8235 10013 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-12 - 2017-06-18 3687 4238 5247 7691 9455 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-13 - 2017-06-19 3632 3919 5247 7181 9106 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-14 - 2017-06-20 3262 3639 5110 6918 9098 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-15 - 2017-06-21 3039 3369 4835 6918 9140 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-16 - 2017-06-22 2843 3067 4541 6740 8103 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-17 - 2017-06-23 2680 2923 4284 6365 7955 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-18 - 2017-06-24 2521 2870 4135 6117 7955 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-19 - 2017-06-25 2286 2722 3964 5891 7751 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-20 - 2017-06-26 2156 2660 3891 5251 7356 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-21 - 2017-06-27 2094 2533 3663 4798 7132 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-22 - 2017-06-28 1986 2362 3419 4512 7132 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-23 - 2017-06-29 1825 2190 3258 4488 6912 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-24 - 2017-06-30 1670 2125 3068 4373 6045 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-25 - 2017-07-01 1554 2026 2870 4029 5643 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-26 - 2017-07-02 1462 1879 2535 4029 5180 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-27 - 2017-07-03 1324 1741 2535 3655 4722 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-28 - 2017-07-04 1240 1593 2501 3471 4539 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-29 - 2017-07-05 1137 1442 2166 3390 4249 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-30 - 2017-07-06 1040 1367 2058 3390 3904 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-01 - 2017-07-07 953 1367 1951 3312 3645 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-02 - 2017-07-08 888 1273 1796 2696 3570 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-03 - 2017-07-09 835 1202 1746 2588 3492 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-04 - 2017-07-10 733 1039 1529 2504 3187 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-05 - 2017-07-11 679 951 1521 2206 3161 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-06 - 2017-07-12 669 890 1456 2167 3064 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-07 - 2017-07-13 648 815 1320 1970 2930 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-08 - 2017-07-14 648 762 1201 1761 2806 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-09 - 2017-07-15 631 721 1139 1616 2681 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-10 - 2017-07-16 603 692 1173 1581 2543 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-11 - 2017-07-17 579 667 1071 1581 2407 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-12 - 2017-07-18 561 667 998 1581 2082 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-13 - 2017-07-19 544 667 932 1440 1905 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-14 - 2017-07-20 531 656 881 1317 1806 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-15 - 2017-07-21 518 608 834 1239 1633 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-16 - 2017-07-22 505 608 794 1186 1518 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-17 - 2017-07-23 489 550 771 1034 1412 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-18 - 2017-07-24 476 532 735 929 1280 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-19 - 2017-07-25 459 517 699 880 1232 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-20 - 2017-07-26 444 505 667 839 1185 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-21 - 2017-07-27 432 505 641 839 1162 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-22 - 2017-07-28 420 484 610 800 1162 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-23 - 2017-07-29 414 472 592 754 1142 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-24 - 2017-07-30 410 447 573 709 1068 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-25 - 2017-07-31 402 424 550 679 914 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2017-04-18 - 2017-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 2 week # Forecast Point: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2017-04-18 - 2017-05-01 6098 6142 6575 8600 10949 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-19 - 2017-05-02 6098 6142 6575 8600 10949 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-20 - 2017-05-03 6098 6142 6575 8600 10949 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-21 - 2017-05-04 6098 6142 6600 8600 10949 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-22 - 2017-05-05 5516 5865 6600 8680 11322 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-23 - 2017-05-06 4711 5559 6575 7816 12115 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-24 - 2017-05-07 4711 5456 6178 7586 11984 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-25 - 2017-05-08 4638 5490 6170 8096 11251 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-26 - 2017-05-09 5053 5490 6170 8389 11251 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-27 - 2017-05-10 5076 5464 6247 8466 11251 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-28 - 2017-05-11 4979 5464 6070 8466 9927 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-29 - 2017-05-12 4953 5464 6247 8354 9418 CFSD # Interval: 2017-04-30 - 2017-05-13 4757 5464 6267 8064 9324 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-01 - 2017-05-14 4757 5464 6411 7918 9102 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-02 - 2017-05-15 4672 5582 6434 8064 9102 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-03 - 2017-05-16 4939 5821 7010 8411 9400 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-04 - 2017-05-17 4939 5918 7767 8411 9418 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-05 - 2017-05-18 4939 5918 7811 8466 9418 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-06 - 2017-05-19 5184 6054 7891 8610 9418 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-07 - 2017-05-20 5443 6297 7891 8771 10179 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-08 - 2017-05-21 5648 6639 7891 8771 10136 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-09 - 2017-05-22 5826 7167 7891 8610 10136 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-10 - 2017-05-23 5917 7167 8070 8771 10280 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-11 - 2017-05-24 6111 7356 8098 9016 11438 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-12 - 2017-05-25 6281 7356 8207 9327 11438 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-13 - 2017-05-26 6320 7352 8207 9327 11438 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-14 - 2017-05-27 6320 7356 8384 9327 11438 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-15 - 2017-05-28 6320 7352 8411 9455 11438 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-16 - 2017-05-29 6320 7213 8411 10034 11438 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-17 - 2017-05-30 6579 7356 8413 10235 11542 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-18 - 2017-05-31 6579 7324 8413 10235 11697 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-19 - 2017-06-01 6534 7213 8325 10604 11668 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-20 - 2017-06-02 6513 7180 8325 10733 11668 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-21 - 2017-06-03 6462 7059 8259 10733 11668 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-22 - 2017-06-04 6322 6993 8259 10235 11668 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-23 - 2017-06-05 6244 6779 8259 10235 11668 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-24 - 2017-06-06 5925 6779 8259 10235 11668 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-25 - 2017-06-07 5502 6551 7920 10235 12210 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-26 - 2017-06-08 5223 6779 7799 10235 11747 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-27 - 2017-06-09 5252 6779 7799 10130 11668 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-28 - 2017-06-10 5196 6779 7799 10099 11852 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-29 - 2017-06-11 5196 6779 7655 10099 11852 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-30 - 2017-06-12 5155 6434 7689 10099 11852 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-31 - 2017-06-13 4823 5927 7384 10099 11852 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-01 - 2017-06-14 4808 5600 7381 10099 11666 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-02 - 2017-06-15 4535 5600 7263 10099 11515 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-03 - 2017-06-16 4455 5484 7263 9936 11515 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-04 - 2017-06-17 4322 5125 7129 9936 11515 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-05 - 2017-06-18 4322 5054 7129 9258 11515 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-06 - 2017-06-19 4322 5125 6613 9152 11515 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-07 - 2017-06-20 4228 5125 6613 9133 11515 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-08 - 2017-06-21 4158 4711 6430 9152 11515 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-09 - 2017-06-22 3991 4466 6176 8965 11515 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-10 - 2017-06-23 3823 4447 5691 8582 10538 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-11 - 2017-06-24 3718 4374 5691 8275 10232 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-12 - 2017-06-25 3687 4329 5691 8033 9675 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-13 - 2017-06-26 3632 3919 5247 7462 9298 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-14 - 2017-06-27 3262 3639 5110 6934 9140 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-15 - 2017-06-28 3039 3369 4835 6934 9140 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-16 - 2017-06-29 2843 3067 4541 6740 8103 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-17 - 2017-06-30 2680 2923 4284 6365 7955 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-18 - 2017-07-01 2521 2870 4135 6117 7955 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-19 - 2017-07-02 2286 2722 3964 5891 7751 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-20 - 2017-07-03 2156 2660 3891 5251 7356 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-21 - 2017-07-04 2094 2533 3663 4798 7132 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-22 - 2017-07-05 1986 2362 3419 4512 7132 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-23 - 2017-07-06 1825 2190 3258 4488 6912 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-24 - 2017-07-07 1670 2125 3068 4373 6045 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-25 - 2017-07-08 1554 2026 2870 4029 5643 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-26 - 2017-07-09 1462 1879 2535 4029 5180 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-27 - 2017-07-10 1324 1741 2535 3655 4722 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-28 - 2017-07-11 1240 1593 2501 3471 4539 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-29 - 2017-07-12 1137 1442 2166 3390 4249 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-30 - 2017-07-13 1040 1367 2058 3390 3904 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-01 - 2017-07-14 953 1367 1951 3312 3645 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-02 - 2017-07-15 888 1273 1796 2696 3570 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-03 - 2017-07-16 835 1202 1746 2588 3492 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-04 - 2017-07-17 733 1039 1529 2504 3187 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-05 - 2017-07-18 680 951 1521 2206 3161 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-06 - 2017-07-19 680 890 1456 2167 3064 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-07 - 2017-07-20 660 815 1368 1970 2930 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-08 - 2017-07-21 648 762 1368 1761 2806 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-09 - 2017-07-22 631 721 1298 1616 2681 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-10 - 2017-07-23 603 692 1173 1581 2543 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-11 - 2017-07-24 579 667 1071 1581 2407 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-12 - 2017-07-25 561 667 998 1581 2082 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-13 - 2017-07-26 544 667 932 1440 1905 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-14 - 2017-07-27 531 667 881 1317 1806 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-15 - 2017-07-28 518 636 839 1239 1633 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-16 - 2017-07-29 505 616 817 1186 1518 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-17 - 2017-07-30 489 595 771 1034 1412 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-18 - 2017-07-31 476 563 735 929 1280 CFSD Please feel free to contact the forecaster at ashley.nielson@noaa.gov Issued by: A.Nielson NNNN $$