Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 05 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-06,2870,Daily Model Output
2017-05-07,3246
2017-05-08,5546
2017-05-09,7421
2017-05-10,7369
2017-05-11,7324
2017-05-12,7578
2017-05-13,7031
2017-05-14,6816
2017-05-15,7468
2017-05-16,8296,ESP Model Output
2017-05-17,8595
2017-05-18,8171
2017-05-19,8584
2017-05-20,8717
2017-05-21,8536
2017-05-22,8327
2017-05-23,8455
2017-05-24,8373
2017-05-25,8454
2017-05-26,8237
2017-05-27,8189
2017-05-28,7828
2017-05-29,7940
2017-05-30,7773
2017-05-31,7527
2017-06-01,7157
2017-06-02,7244
2017-06-03,6779
2017-06-04,6822
2017-06-05,6936
2017-06-06,6917
2017-06-07,6960
2017-06-08,6829
2017-06-09,6473
2017-06-10,6299
2017-06-11,6541
2017-06-12,6156
2017-06-13,5743
2017-06-14,5404
2017-06-15,5289
2017-06-16,5140
2017-06-17,4865
2017-06-18,4667
2017-06-19,4377
2017-06-20,4237
2017-06-21,3990
2017-06-22,3779
2017-06-23,3633
2017-06-24,3575
2017-06-25,3388
2017-06-26,3055
2017-06-27,2848
2017-06-28,2912
2017-06-29,2611
2017-06-30,2408
2017-07-01,2202
2017-07-02,2305
2017-07-03,2121
2017-07-04,1876
2017-07-05,1686
2017-07-06,1645
2017-07-07,1469
2017-07-08,1384
2017-07-09,1320
2017-07-10,1244
2017-07-11,1152
2017-07-12,1082
2017-07-13,1014
2017-07-14,959
2017-07-15,908
2017-07-16,869
2017-07-17,827
2017-07-18,777
2017-07-19,733
2017-07-20,698
2017-07-21,678
2017-07-22,655
2017-07-23,621
2017-07-24,593
2017-07-25,567
2017-07-26,550
2017-07-27,539
2017-07-28,523
2017-07-29,507
2017-07-30,491
2017-07-31,472
2017-08-01,459
2017-08-02,448
2017-08-03,450
2017-08-04,435
2017-08-05,422
2017-08-06,417
2017-08-07,413
2017-08-08,408
2017-08-09,408
2017-08-10,398
2017-08-11,396
2017-08-12,385
2017-08-13,379
2017-08-14,379
2017-08-15,380
2017-08-16,373
2017-08-17,364
2017-08-18,360
2017-08-19,354
2017-08-20,354
2017-08-21,352
2017-08-22,339
2017-08-23,352
2017-08-24,354
2017-08-25,347
2017-08-26,344
2017-08-27,337
2017-08-28,332
2017-08-29,323
2017-08-30,317
2017-08-31,312
2017-09-01,310
2017-09-02,304
2017-09-03,300
2017-09-04,299
2017-09-05,290
2017-09-06,285
2017-09-07,283
2017-09-08,280
2017-09-09,272
2017-09-10,272
2017-09-11,268
2017-09-12,264
2017-09-13,263
2017-09-14,262
2017-09-15,258
2017-09-16,257
2017-09-17,256
2017-09-18,247
2017-09-19,244
2017-09-20,252
2017-09-21,252
2017-09-22,276
2017-09-23,274
2017-09-24,284
2017-09-25,286
2017-09-26,284
2017-09-27,281
2017-09-28,289
2017-09-29,290
2017-09-30,297


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.