Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 06 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-07,3211,Daily Model Output
2017-05-08,4685
2017-05-09,7262
2017-05-10,7664
2017-05-11,7200
2017-05-12,7195
2017-05-13,7413
2017-05-14,7200
2017-05-15,7506
2017-05-16,7917
2017-05-17,8443,ESP Model Output
2017-05-18,8438
2017-05-19,8773
2017-05-20,8612
2017-05-21,8731
2017-05-22,8454
2017-05-23,8611
2017-05-24,8517
2017-05-25,8624
2017-05-26,8214
2017-05-27,8322
2017-05-28,7879
2017-05-29,8077
2017-05-30,7965
2017-05-31,7710
2017-06-01,7224
2017-06-02,7357
2017-06-03,6958
2017-06-04,6904
2017-06-05,6949
2017-06-06,6903
2017-06-07,7051
2017-06-08,6899
2017-06-09,6572
2017-06-10,6287
2017-06-11,6431
2017-06-12,6133
2017-06-13,5849
2017-06-14,5464
2017-06-15,5312
2017-06-16,5087
2017-06-17,4738
2017-06-18,4642
2017-06-19,4403
2017-06-20,4310
2017-06-21,4112
2017-06-22,3797
2017-06-23,3664
2017-06-24,3530
2017-06-25,3405
2017-06-26,3141
2017-06-27,2949
2017-06-28,2834
2017-06-29,2642
2017-06-30,2450
2017-07-01,2219
2017-07-02,2293
2017-07-03,2144
2017-07-04,1913
2017-07-05,1744
2017-07-06,1609
2017-07-07,1459
2017-07-08,1399
2017-07-09,1296
2017-07-10,1244
2017-07-11,1142
2017-07-12,1077
2017-07-13,1014
2017-07-14,959
2017-07-15,917
2017-07-16,858
2017-07-17,814
2017-07-18,768
2017-07-19,739
2017-07-20,704
2017-07-21,676
2017-07-22,648
2017-07-23,627
2017-07-24,599
2017-07-25,570
2017-07-26,552
2017-07-27,535
2017-07-28,522
2017-07-29,505
2017-07-30,489
2017-07-31,476
2017-08-01,459
2017-08-02,445
2017-08-03,447
2017-08-04,438
2017-08-05,424
2017-08-06,419
2017-08-07,415
2017-08-08,408
2017-08-09,410
2017-08-10,400
2017-08-11,398
2017-08-12,386
2017-08-13,380
2017-08-14,378
2017-08-15,380
2017-08-16,370
2017-08-17,364
2017-08-18,359
2017-08-19,354
2017-08-20,354
2017-08-21,351
2017-08-22,341
2017-08-23,352
2017-08-24,355
2017-08-25,348
2017-08-26,344
2017-08-27,337
2017-08-28,333
2017-08-29,325
2017-08-30,318
2017-08-31,312
2017-09-01,310
2017-09-02,305
2017-09-03,300
2017-09-04,300
2017-09-05,291
2017-09-06,285
2017-09-07,282
2017-09-08,279
2017-09-09,273
2017-09-10,270
2017-09-11,269
2017-09-12,265
2017-09-13,263
2017-09-14,258
2017-09-15,259
2017-09-16,257
2017-09-17,256
2017-09-18,248
2017-09-19,243
2017-09-20,253
2017-09-21,253
2017-09-22,277
2017-09-23,274
2017-09-24,283
2017-09-25,285
2017-09-26,286
2017-09-27,281
2017-09-28,290
2017-09-29,292
2017-09-30,296


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.