Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 07 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-08,4606,Daily Model Output
2017-05-09,6155
2017-05-10,7419
2017-05-11,7269
2017-05-12,7772
2017-05-13,8260
2017-05-14,7774
2017-05-15,7822
2017-05-16,8328
2017-05-17,8535
2017-05-18,9070,ESP Model Output
2017-05-19,8846
2017-05-20,8849
2017-05-21,8688
2017-05-22,8568
2017-05-23,8660
2017-05-24,8600
2017-05-25,8510
2017-05-26,8313
2017-05-27,8232
2017-05-28,7915
2017-05-29,8102
2017-05-30,8000
2017-05-31,7679
2017-06-01,7266
2017-06-02,7261
2017-06-03,6955
2017-06-04,6858
2017-06-05,6941
2017-06-06,6726
2017-06-07,6889
2017-06-08,6788
2017-06-09,6450
2017-06-10,6066
2017-06-11,6215
2017-06-12,6115
2017-06-13,5746
2017-06-14,5435
2017-06-15,5076
2017-06-16,4904
2017-06-17,4610
2017-06-18,4494
2017-06-19,4296
2017-06-20,4276
2017-06-21,4070
2017-06-22,3671
2017-06-23,3508
2017-06-24,3469
2017-06-25,3300
2017-06-26,3163
2017-06-27,2921
2017-06-28,2774
2017-06-29,2665
2017-06-30,2473
2017-07-01,2243
2017-07-02,2222
2017-07-03,2063
2017-07-04,1799
2017-07-05,1686
2017-07-06,1648
2017-07-07,1496
2017-07-08,1402
2017-07-09,1298
2017-07-10,1212
2017-07-11,1093
2017-07-12,1039
2017-07-13,967
2017-07-14,910
2017-07-15,882
2017-07-16,819
2017-07-17,777
2017-07-18,739
2017-07-19,717
2017-07-20,686
2017-07-21,660
2017-07-22,642
2017-07-23,626
2017-07-24,599
2017-07-25,568
2017-07-26,553
2017-07-27,532
2017-07-28,510
2017-07-29,494
2017-07-30,479
2017-07-31,471
2017-08-01,451
2017-08-02,437
2017-08-03,440
2017-08-04,436
2017-08-05,423
2017-08-06,415
2017-08-07,409
2017-08-08,404
2017-08-09,406
2017-08-10,396
2017-08-11,394
2017-08-12,385
2017-08-13,377
2017-08-14,373
2017-08-15,377
2017-08-16,367
2017-08-17,361
2017-08-18,355
2017-08-19,351
2017-08-20,350
2017-08-21,348
2017-08-22,338
2017-08-23,348
2017-08-24,352
2017-08-25,345
2017-08-26,341
2017-08-27,335
2017-08-28,331
2017-08-29,323
2017-08-30,315
2017-08-31,310
2017-09-01,306
2017-09-02,302
2017-09-03,298
2017-09-04,297
2017-09-05,289
2017-09-06,283
2017-09-07,280
2017-09-08,277
2017-09-09,271
2017-09-10,268
2017-09-11,268
2017-09-12,262
2017-09-13,261
2017-09-14,258
2017-09-15,258
2017-09-16,253
2017-09-17,253
2017-09-18,245
2017-09-19,241
2017-09-20,251
2017-09-21,251
2017-09-22,275
2017-09-23,273
2017-09-24,281
2017-09-25,284
2017-09-26,284
2017-09-27,278
2017-09-28,288
2017-09-29,288
2017-09-30,294


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.