Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 08 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-09,6248,Daily Model Output
2017-05-10,7503
2017-05-11,7870
2017-05-12,8159
2017-05-13,8262
2017-05-14,7747
2017-05-15,7994
2017-05-16,8413
2017-05-17,8305
2017-05-18,7901
2017-05-19,9445,ESP Model Output
2017-05-20,9105
2017-05-21,8949
2017-05-22,8666
2017-05-23,8777
2017-05-24,8644
2017-05-25,8543
2017-05-26,8492
2017-05-27,8217
2017-05-28,7920
2017-05-29,8087
2017-05-30,7949
2017-05-31,7629
2017-06-01,7052
2017-06-02,7033
2017-06-03,6823
2017-06-04,6536
2017-06-05,6829
2017-06-06,6722
2017-06-07,6558
2017-06-08,6499
2017-06-09,6231
2017-06-10,5761
2017-06-11,5838
2017-06-12,5875
2017-06-13,5537
2017-06-14,5318
2017-06-15,4971
2017-06-16,4635
2017-06-17,4318
2017-06-18,4321
2017-06-19,3996
2017-06-20,4045
2017-06-21,3833
2017-06-22,3527
2017-06-23,3402
2017-06-24,3287
2017-06-25,3109
2017-06-26,3022
2017-06-27,2848
2017-06-28,2690
2017-06-29,2599
2017-06-30,2485
2017-07-01,2265
2017-07-02,2120
2017-07-03,1891
2017-07-04,1638
2017-07-05,1607
2017-07-06,1635
2017-07-07,1503
2017-07-08,1388
2017-07-09,1264
2017-07-10,1156
2017-07-11,1071
2017-07-12,1009
2017-07-13,951
2017-07-14,910
2017-07-15,854
2017-07-16,814
2017-07-17,779
2017-07-18,741
2017-07-19,706
2017-07-20,677
2017-07-21,650
2017-07-22,622
2017-07-23,619
2017-07-24,586
2017-07-25,559
2017-07-26,544
2017-07-27,529
2017-07-28,502
2017-07-29,484
2017-07-30,469
2017-07-31,465
2017-08-01,447
2017-08-02,428
2017-08-03,429
2017-08-04,427
2017-08-05,419
2017-08-06,412
2017-08-07,407
2017-08-08,402
2017-08-09,395
2017-08-10,386
2017-08-11,390
2017-08-12,381
2017-08-13,375
2017-08-14,369
2017-08-15,371
2017-08-16,365
2017-08-17,356
2017-08-18,352
2017-08-19,349
2017-08-20,345
2017-08-21,342
2017-08-22,334
2017-08-23,344
2017-08-24,348
2017-08-25,340
2017-08-26,337
2017-08-27,330
2017-08-28,326
2017-08-29,320
2017-08-30,312
2017-08-31,308
2017-09-01,303
2017-09-02,299
2017-09-03,294
2017-09-04,295
2017-09-05,285
2017-09-06,282
2017-09-07,276
2017-09-08,274
2017-09-09,268
2017-09-10,267
2017-09-11,265
2017-09-12,261
2017-09-13,256
2017-09-14,257
2017-09-15,255
2017-09-16,252
2017-09-17,250
2017-09-18,242
2017-09-19,239
2017-09-20,250
2017-09-21,250
2017-09-22,274
2017-09-23,272
2017-09-24,277
2017-09-25,282
2017-09-26,282
2017-09-27,276
2017-09-28,285
2017-09-29,284
2017-09-30,290


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.