Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 09 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-10,7317,Daily Model Output (20170509)
2017-05-11,7712
2017-05-12,8466
2017-05-13,8261
2017-05-14,7881
2017-05-15,8374
2017-05-16,8561
2017-05-17,8015
2017-05-18,7356
2017-05-19,6910
2017-05-20,7806,ESP Model Output (20170509)
2017-05-21,7571
2017-05-22,7726
2017-05-23,8076
2017-05-24,7905
2017-05-25,7744
2017-05-26,7459
2017-05-27,7257
2017-05-28,7232
2017-05-29,7401
2017-05-30,7134
2017-05-31,6986
2017-06-01,6650
2017-06-02,6649
2017-06-03,6308
2017-06-04,6149
2017-06-05,6285
2017-06-06,6275
2017-06-07,6209
2017-06-08,6036
2017-06-09,6008
2017-06-10,5535
2017-06-11,5462
2017-06-12,5635
2017-06-13,5145
2017-06-14,4902
2017-06-15,4750
2017-06-16,4319
2017-06-17,3975
2017-06-18,3940
2017-06-19,3699
2017-06-20,3659
2017-06-21,3544
2017-06-22,3433
2017-06-23,3233
2017-06-24,3013
2017-06-25,2858
2017-06-26,2788
2017-06-27,2712
2017-06-28,2476
2017-06-29,2409
2017-06-30,2348
2017-07-01,2124
2017-07-02,1968
2017-07-03,1736
2017-07-04,1565
2017-07-05,1540
2017-07-06,1510
2017-07-07,1400
2017-07-08,1293
2017-07-09,1209
2017-07-10,1084
2017-07-11,1024
2017-07-12,975
2017-07-13,922
2017-07-14,875
2017-07-15,819
2017-07-16,772
2017-07-17,743
2017-07-18,713
2017-07-19,689
2017-07-20,661
2017-07-21,631
2017-07-22,601
2017-07-23,578
2017-07-24,556
2017-07-25,536
2017-07-26,526
2017-07-27,506
2017-07-28,483
2017-07-29,471
2017-07-30,457
2017-07-31,443
2017-08-01,429
2017-08-02,417
2017-08-03,419
2017-08-04,419
2017-08-05,405
2017-08-06,406
2017-08-07,401
2017-08-08,393
2017-08-09,384
2017-08-10,378
2017-08-11,382
2017-08-12,373
2017-08-13,368
2017-08-14,363
2017-08-15,364
2017-08-16,358
2017-08-17,348
2017-08-18,346
2017-08-19,344
2017-08-20,341
2017-08-21,335
2017-08-22,324
2017-08-23,339
2017-08-24,342
2017-08-25,337
2017-08-26,332
2017-08-27,325
2017-08-28,321
2017-08-29,315
2017-08-30,308
2017-08-31,303
2017-09-01,297
2017-09-02,294
2017-09-03,288
2017-09-04,286
2017-09-05,281
2017-09-06,276
2017-09-07,273
2017-09-08,270
2017-09-09,264
2017-09-10,263
2017-09-11,261
2017-09-12,259
2017-09-13,252
2017-09-14,252
2017-09-15,252
2017-09-16,251
2017-09-17,245
2017-09-18,238
2017-09-19,237
2017-09-20,248
2017-09-21,248
2017-09-22,271
2017-09-23,269
2017-09-24,273
2017-09-25,278
2017-09-26,280
2017-09-27,271
2017-09-28,282
2017-09-29,280
2017-09-30,283


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.