Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 11 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-12,8714,Daily Model Output (20170511)
2017-05-13,8414
2017-05-14,8526
2017-05-15,9362
2017-05-16,9539
2017-05-17,8802
2017-05-18,7957
2017-05-19,6898
2017-05-20,6565
2017-05-21,6040
2017-05-22,7176,ESP Model Output (20170510)
2017-05-23,7055
2017-05-24,7633
2017-05-25,7692
2017-05-26,7642
2017-05-27,7418
2017-05-28,7435
2017-05-29,7528
2017-05-30,7241
2017-05-31,7147
2017-06-01,6803
2017-06-02,6907
2017-06-03,6530
2017-06-04,6422
2017-06-05,6409
2017-06-06,6447
2017-06-07,6438
2017-06-08,6208
2017-06-09,6147
2017-06-10,5806
2017-06-11,5707
2017-06-12,5887
2017-06-13,5264
2017-06-14,5072
2017-06-15,4889
2017-06-16,4460
2017-06-17,4157
2017-06-18,4057
2017-06-19,3814
2017-06-20,3757
2017-06-21,3709
2017-06-22,3591
2017-06-23,3372
2017-06-24,3113
2017-06-25,2914
2017-06-26,2867
2017-06-27,2737
2017-06-28,2562
2017-06-29,2498
2017-06-30,2357
2017-07-01,2191
2017-07-02,2001
2017-07-03,1757
2017-07-04,1586
2017-07-05,1558
2017-07-06,1503
2017-07-07,1410
2017-07-08,1320
2017-07-09,1223
2017-07-10,1117
2017-07-11,1036
2017-07-12,986
2017-07-13,929
2017-07-14,881
2017-07-15,836
2017-07-16,789
2017-07-17,749
2017-07-18,719
2017-07-19,693
2017-07-20,664
2017-07-21,633
2017-07-22,603
2017-07-23,581
2017-07-24,564
2017-07-25,542
2017-07-26,523
2017-07-27,507
2017-07-28,493
2017-07-29,475
2017-07-30,458
2017-07-31,446
2017-08-01,431
2017-08-02,419
2017-08-03,421
2017-08-04,422
2017-08-05,407
2017-08-06,407
2017-08-07,403
2017-08-08,396
2017-08-09,386
2017-08-10,381
2017-08-11,382
2017-08-12,373
2017-08-13,370
2017-08-14,364
2017-08-15,365
2017-08-16,359
2017-08-17,350
2017-08-18,348
2017-08-19,344
2017-08-20,343
2017-08-21,336
2017-08-22,325
2017-08-23,341
2017-08-24,344
2017-08-25,338
2017-08-26,332
2017-08-27,325
2017-08-28,322
2017-08-29,315
2017-08-30,308
2017-08-31,304
2017-09-01,298
2017-09-02,294
2017-09-03,289
2017-09-04,286
2017-09-05,281
2017-09-06,277
2017-09-07,274
2017-09-08,270
2017-09-09,264
2017-09-10,264
2017-09-11,263
2017-09-12,260
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,253
2017-09-15,252
2017-09-16,252
2017-09-17,246
2017-09-18,238
2017-09-19,238
2017-09-20,249
2017-09-21,249
2017-09-22,272
2017-09-23,270
2017-09-24,274
2017-09-25,279
2017-09-26,280
2017-09-27,272
2017-09-28,283
2017-09-29,281
2017-09-30,284


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.