Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 12 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-13,8461,Daily Model Output (20170512)
2017-05-14,8759
2017-05-15,9561
2017-05-16,9886
2017-05-17,9225
2017-05-18,8477
2017-05-19,7094
2017-05-20,6124
2017-05-21,5256
2017-05-22,4426
2017-05-23,5571,ESP Model Output (20170511)
2017-05-24,5934
2017-05-25,6872
2017-05-26,7181
2017-05-27,7085
2017-05-28,7124
2017-05-29,7172
2017-05-30,7052
2017-05-31,6902
2017-06-01,6455
2017-06-02,6766
2017-06-03,6539
2017-06-04,6427
2017-06-05,6512
2017-06-06,6433
2017-06-07,6510
2017-06-08,6331
2017-06-09,6274
2017-06-10,5791
2017-06-11,5825
2017-06-12,5946
2017-06-13,5304
2017-06-14,5087
2017-06-15,4917
2017-06-16,4541
2017-06-17,4257
2017-06-18,4142
2017-06-19,3961
2017-06-20,3737
2017-06-21,3659
2017-06-22,3645
2017-06-23,3304
2017-06-24,3143
2017-06-25,2951
2017-06-26,2913
2017-06-27,2817
2017-06-28,2600
2017-06-29,2480
2017-06-30,2415
2017-07-01,2233
2017-07-02,2054
2017-07-03,1829
2017-07-04,1611
2017-07-05,1574
2017-07-06,1479
2017-07-07,1426
2017-07-08,1333
2017-07-09,1231
2017-07-10,1124
2017-07-11,1051
2017-07-12,1008
2017-07-13,956
2017-07-14,896
2017-07-15,847
2017-07-16,802
2017-07-17,765
2017-07-18,730
2017-07-19,693
2017-07-20,656
2017-07-21,626
2017-07-22,597
2017-07-23,582
2017-07-24,562
2017-07-25,540
2017-07-26,524
2017-07-27,504
2017-07-28,491
2017-07-29,473
2017-07-30,459
2017-07-31,444
2017-08-01,430
2017-08-02,421
2017-08-03,421
2017-08-04,423
2017-08-05,407
2017-08-06,407
2017-08-07,403
2017-08-08,397
2017-08-09,387
2017-08-10,384
2017-08-11,383
2017-08-12,374
2017-08-13,371
2017-08-14,365
2017-08-15,365
2017-08-16,359
2017-08-17,349
2017-08-18,349
2017-08-19,346
2017-08-20,342
2017-08-21,335
2017-08-22,324
2017-08-23,340
2017-08-24,345
2017-08-25,337
2017-08-26,331
2017-08-27,324
2017-08-28,321
2017-08-29,315
2017-08-30,307
2017-08-31,303
2017-09-01,298
2017-09-02,293
2017-09-03,288
2017-09-04,285
2017-09-05,281
2017-09-06,276
2017-09-07,274
2017-09-08,269
2017-09-09,264
2017-09-10,263
2017-09-11,262
2017-09-12,260
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,253
2017-09-15,252
2017-09-16,251
2017-09-17,246
2017-09-18,238
2017-09-19,238
2017-09-20,249
2017-09-21,248
2017-09-22,272
2017-09-23,270
2017-09-24,272
2017-09-25,278
2017-09-26,279
2017-09-27,271
2017-09-28,283
2017-09-29,280
2017-09-30,284


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.