Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 13 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-14,8762,Daily Model Output (20170513)
2017-05-15,9749
2017-05-16,10008
2017-05-17,9262
2017-05-18,8460
2017-05-19,7143
2017-05-20,6626
2017-05-21,5674
2017-05-22,4682
2017-05-23,4145
2017-05-24,4407,ESP Model Output (20170512)
2017-05-25,5544
2017-05-26,6384
2017-05-27,6762
2017-05-28,6757
2017-05-29,6825
2017-05-30,6799
2017-05-31,6666
2017-06-01,6418
2017-06-02,6780
2017-06-03,6604
2017-06-04,6485
2017-06-05,6520
2017-06-06,6629
2017-06-07,6736
2017-06-08,6570
2017-06-09,6543
2017-06-10,6001
2017-06-11,6064
2017-06-12,6178
2017-06-13,5399
2017-06-14,5228
2017-06-15,4917
2017-06-16,4727
2017-06-17,4415
2017-06-18,4223
2017-06-19,4123
2017-06-20,3854
2017-06-21,3724
2017-06-22,3752
2017-06-23,3425
2017-06-24,3208
2017-06-25,3015
2017-06-26,2965
2017-06-27,2955
2017-06-28,2717
2017-06-29,2595
2017-06-30,2527
2017-07-01,2325
2017-07-02,2129
2017-07-03,1920
2017-07-04,1677
2017-07-05,1627
2017-07-06,1562
2017-07-07,1482
2017-07-08,1382
2017-07-09,1273
2017-07-10,1160
2017-07-11,1082
2017-07-12,1020
2017-07-13,973
2017-07-14,924
2017-07-15,873
2017-07-16,821
2017-07-17,785
2017-07-18,748
2017-07-19,708
2017-07-20,674
2017-07-21,639
2017-07-22,608
2017-07-23,592
2017-07-24,570
2017-07-25,548
2017-07-26,531
2017-07-27,510
2017-07-28,496
2017-07-29,476
2017-07-30,462
2017-07-31,448
2017-08-01,435
2017-08-02,425
2017-08-03,424
2017-08-04,417
2017-08-05,409
2017-08-06,409
2017-08-07,406
2017-08-08,399
2017-08-09,392
2017-08-10,388
2017-08-11,384
2017-08-12,375
2017-08-13,369
2017-08-14,367
2017-08-15,366
2017-08-16,359
2017-08-17,349
2017-08-18,351
2017-08-19,346
2017-08-20,341
2017-08-21,335
2017-08-22,324
2017-08-23,340
2017-08-24,344
2017-08-25,337
2017-08-26,331
2017-08-27,323
2017-08-28,322
2017-08-29,315
2017-08-30,307
2017-08-31,302
2017-09-01,296
2017-09-02,293
2017-09-03,289
2017-09-04,285
2017-09-05,280
2017-09-06,276
2017-09-07,274
2017-09-08,269
2017-09-09,263
2017-09-10,263
2017-09-11,261
2017-09-12,259
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,253
2017-09-15,251
2017-09-16,251
2017-09-17,245
2017-09-18,237
2017-09-19,238
2017-09-20,249
2017-09-21,248
2017-09-22,272
2017-09-23,270
2017-09-24,271
2017-09-25,278
2017-09-26,278
2017-09-27,271
2017-09-28,283
2017-09-29,280
2017-09-30,284


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.