Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 14 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-15,9798,Daily Model Output (20170514)
2017-05-16,10878
2017-05-17,10738
2017-05-18,9636
2017-05-19,7953
2017-05-20,6792
2017-05-21,5730
2017-05-22,4872
2017-05-23,4541
2017-05-24,4956
2017-05-25,5053,ESP Model Output (20170513)
2017-05-26,5920
2017-05-27,6647
2017-05-28,6651
2017-05-29,6747
2017-05-30,6785
2017-05-31,6700
2017-06-01,6517
2017-06-02,6869
2017-06-03,6497
2017-06-04,6545
2017-06-05,6584
2017-06-06,6807
2017-06-07,6822
2017-06-08,6788
2017-06-09,6572
2017-06-10,6185
2017-06-11,6247
2017-06-12,6235
2017-06-13,5650
2017-06-14,5381
2017-06-15,4958
2017-06-16,4864
2017-06-17,4556
2017-06-18,4346
2017-06-19,4254
2017-06-20,4013
2017-06-21,3881
2017-06-22,3874
2017-06-23,3404
2017-06-24,3323
2017-06-25,3143
2017-06-26,3068
2017-06-27,2980
2017-06-28,2864
2017-06-29,2742
2017-06-30,2534
2017-07-01,2348
2017-07-02,2162
2017-07-03,1930
2017-07-04,1723
2017-07-05,1627
2017-07-06,1654
2017-07-07,1526
2017-07-08,1395
2017-07-09,1283
2017-07-10,1183
2017-07-11,1103
2017-07-12,1041
2017-07-13,980
2017-07-14,931
2017-07-15,898
2017-07-16,848
2017-07-17,805
2017-07-18,761
2017-07-19,722
2017-07-20,691
2017-07-21,662
2017-07-22,629
2017-07-23,608
2017-07-24,586
2017-07-25,563
2017-07-26,543
2017-07-27,524
2017-07-28,504
2017-07-29,483
2017-07-30,471
2017-07-31,458
2017-08-01,440
2017-08-02,430
2017-08-03,426
2017-08-04,419
2017-08-05,413
2017-08-06,411
2017-08-07,407
2017-08-08,400
2017-08-09,398
2017-08-10,394
2017-08-11,389
2017-08-12,379
2017-08-13,371
2017-08-14,369
2017-08-15,368
2017-08-16,359
2017-08-17,352
2017-08-18,351
2017-08-19,348
2017-08-20,343
2017-08-21,336
2017-08-22,326
2017-08-23,342
2017-08-24,344
2017-08-25,339
2017-08-26,332
2017-08-27,324
2017-08-28,323
2017-08-29,316
2017-08-30,309
2017-08-31,304
2017-09-01,297
2017-09-02,295
2017-09-03,288
2017-09-04,287
2017-09-05,282
2017-09-06,276
2017-09-07,274
2017-09-08,269
2017-09-09,265
2017-09-10,263
2017-09-11,262
2017-09-12,260
2017-09-13,254
2017-09-14,254
2017-09-15,252
2017-09-16,252
2017-09-17,246
2017-09-18,237
2017-09-19,238
2017-09-20,249
2017-09-21,249
2017-09-22,273
2017-09-23,271
2017-09-24,271
2017-09-25,278
2017-09-26,280
2017-09-27,271
2017-09-28,283
2017-09-29,281
2017-09-30,284


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.