Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 15 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-16,10715,Daily Model Output (20170515)
2017-05-17,10373
2017-05-18,9718
2017-05-19,8203
2017-05-20,6692
2017-05-21,5570
2017-05-22,4762
2017-05-23,4399
2017-05-24,5081
2017-05-25,6032
2017-05-26,6602,ESP Model Output (20170514)
2017-05-27,7102
2017-05-28,7105
2017-05-29,7262
2017-05-30,7212
2017-05-31,7274
2017-06-01,7115
2017-06-02,7295
2017-06-03,6701
2017-06-04,7009
2017-06-05,6821
2017-06-06,7195
2017-06-07,6986
2017-06-08,7168
2017-06-09,6960
2017-06-10,6502
2017-06-11,6501
2017-06-12,6507
2017-06-13,5905
2017-06-14,5479
2017-06-15,5148
2017-06-16,4990
2017-06-17,4671
2017-06-18,4445
2017-06-19,4342
2017-06-20,4179
2017-06-21,4075
2017-06-22,3957
2017-06-23,3504
2017-06-24,3324
2017-06-25,3239
2017-06-26,3193
2017-06-27,3076
2017-06-28,2952
2017-06-29,2741
2017-06-30,2497
2017-07-01,2333
2017-07-02,2145
2017-07-03,1936
2017-07-04,1700
2017-07-05,1631
2017-07-06,1644
2017-07-07,1515
2017-07-08,1395
2017-07-09,1297
2017-07-10,1181
2017-07-11,1105
2017-07-12,1039
2017-07-13,980
2017-07-14,927
2017-07-15,897
2017-07-16,847
2017-07-17,804
2017-07-18,759
2017-07-19,723
2017-07-20,692
2017-07-21,664
2017-07-22,633
2017-07-23,615
2017-07-24,590
2017-07-25,566
2017-07-26,546
2017-07-27,527
2017-07-28,508
2017-07-29,489
2017-07-30,472
2017-07-31,460
2017-08-01,444
2017-08-02,431
2017-08-03,429
2017-08-04,424
2017-08-05,412
2017-08-06,410
2017-08-07,406
2017-08-08,398
2017-08-09,402
2017-08-10,398
2017-08-11,392
2017-08-12,382
2017-08-13,375
2017-08-14,371
2017-08-15,371
2017-08-16,362
2017-08-17,356
2017-08-18,353
2017-08-19,350
2017-08-20,345
2017-08-21,338
2017-08-22,329
2017-08-23,343
2017-08-24,346
2017-08-25,339
2017-08-26,334
2017-08-27,327
2017-08-28,325
2017-08-29,318
2017-08-30,311
2017-08-31,306
2017-09-01,300
2017-09-02,297
2017-09-03,290
2017-09-04,288
2017-09-05,284
2017-09-06,277
2017-09-07,275
2017-09-08,271
2017-09-09,267
2017-09-10,264
2017-09-11,264
2017-09-12,262
2017-09-13,254
2017-09-14,256
2017-09-15,254
2017-09-16,254
2017-09-17,248
2017-09-18,237
2017-09-19,241
2017-09-20,252
2017-09-21,251
2017-09-22,275
2017-09-23,273
2017-09-24,273
2017-09-25,278
2017-09-26,282
2017-09-27,272
2017-09-28,286
2017-09-29,283
2017-09-30,286


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.