Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 17 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-18,9351,Daily Model Output (20170517)
2017-05-19,8718
2017-05-20,7494
2017-05-21,6076
2017-05-22,5125
2017-05-23,4702
2017-05-24,5536
2017-05-25,6449
2017-05-26,6334
2017-05-27,5954
2017-05-28,6527,ESP Model Output (20170516)
2017-05-29,7206
2017-05-30,7358
2017-05-31,7562
2017-06-01,7418
2017-06-02,7240
2017-06-03,6748
2017-06-04,7086
2017-06-05,6986
2017-06-06,7092
2017-06-07,7062
2017-06-08,7116
2017-06-09,7094
2017-06-10,6741
2017-06-11,6561
2017-06-12,6564
2017-06-13,6101
2017-06-14,5529
2017-06-15,5340
2017-06-16,5047
2017-06-17,4702
2017-06-18,4557
2017-06-19,4451
2017-06-20,4261
2017-06-21,4005
2017-06-22,3873
2017-06-23,3545
2017-06-24,3474
2017-06-25,3293
2017-06-26,3129
2017-06-27,3046
2017-06-28,2849
2017-06-29,2682
2017-06-30,2431
2017-07-01,2227
2017-07-02,2103
2017-07-03,1991
2017-07-04,1688
2017-07-05,1628
2017-07-06,1577
2017-07-07,1444
2017-07-08,1349
2017-07-09,1273
2017-07-10,1160
2017-07-11,1083
2017-07-12,1020
2017-07-13,963
2017-07-14,912
2017-07-15,884
2017-07-16,840
2017-07-17,797
2017-07-18,755
2017-07-19,713
2017-07-20,683
2017-07-21,660
2017-07-22,639
2017-07-23,616
2017-07-24,591
2017-07-25,562
2017-07-26,545
2017-07-27,522
2017-07-28,504
2017-07-29,489
2017-07-30,470
2017-07-31,464
2017-08-01,448
2017-08-02,435
2017-08-03,427
2017-08-04,418
2017-08-05,411
2017-08-06,406
2017-08-07,402
2017-08-08,394
2017-08-09,393
2017-08-10,394
2017-08-11,392
2017-08-12,382
2017-08-13,377
2017-08-14,370
2017-08-15,363
2017-08-16,361
2017-08-17,355
2017-08-18,354
2017-08-19,346
2017-08-20,342
2017-08-21,336
2017-08-22,328
2017-08-23,344
2017-08-24,347
2017-08-25,340
2017-08-26,333
2017-08-27,327
2017-08-28,327
2017-08-29,319
2017-08-30,312
2017-08-31,305
2017-09-01,300
2017-09-02,297
2017-09-03,291
2017-09-04,288
2017-09-05,285
2017-09-06,277
2017-09-07,275
2017-09-08,271
2017-09-09,264
2017-09-10,265
2017-09-11,263
2017-09-12,258
2017-09-13,255
2017-09-14,257
2017-09-15,250
2017-09-16,254
2017-09-17,248
2017-09-18,237
2017-09-19,238
2017-09-20,252
2017-09-21,252
2017-09-22,276
2017-09-23,274
2017-09-24,273
2017-09-25,278
2017-09-26,283
2017-09-27,273
2017-09-28,287
2017-09-29,283
2017-09-30,286


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.