Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 18 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-19,8492,Daily Model Output (20170518)
2017-05-20,7487
2017-05-21,6055
2017-05-22,5075
2017-05-23,4612
2017-05-24,5577
2017-05-25,7126
2017-05-26,7279
2017-05-27,6925
2017-05-28,6886
2017-05-29,7399,ESP Model Output (20170517)
2017-05-30,7608
2017-05-31,7719
2017-06-01,7582
2017-06-02,7406
2017-06-03,7036
2017-06-04,7192
2017-06-05,7182
2017-06-06,7446
2017-06-07,7315
2017-06-08,7430
2017-06-09,7274
2017-06-10,6885
2017-06-11,6894
2017-06-12,6756
2017-06-13,6340
2017-06-14,5901
2017-06-15,5702
2017-06-16,5358
2017-06-17,4954
2017-06-18,4772
2017-06-19,4658
2017-06-20,4380
2017-06-21,4198
2017-06-22,3956
2017-06-23,3627
2017-06-24,3694
2017-06-25,3460
2017-06-26,3228
2017-06-27,3088
2017-06-28,2953
2017-06-29,2765
2017-06-30,2509
2017-07-01,2335
2017-07-02,2176
2017-07-03,2039
2017-07-04,1766
2017-07-05,1687
2017-07-06,1640
2017-07-07,1512
2017-07-08,1372
2017-07-09,1283
2017-07-10,1180
2017-07-11,1102
2017-07-12,1051
2017-07-13,988
2017-07-14,925
2017-07-15,884
2017-07-16,865
2017-07-17,822
2017-07-18,771
2017-07-19,729
2017-07-20,698
2017-07-21,673
2017-07-22,641
2017-07-23,615
2017-07-24,589
2017-07-25,565
2017-07-26,545
2017-07-27,530
2017-07-28,515
2017-07-29,494
2017-07-30,485
2017-07-31,473
2017-08-01,457
2017-08-02,441
2017-08-03,434
2017-08-04,424
2017-08-05,416
2017-08-06,411
2017-08-07,404
2017-08-08,397
2017-08-09,397
2017-08-10,396
2017-08-11,392
2017-08-12,384
2017-08-13,378
2017-08-14,371
2017-08-15,365
2017-08-16,360
2017-08-17,357
2017-08-18,352
2017-08-19,348
2017-08-20,344
2017-08-21,337
2017-08-22,330
2017-08-23,345
2017-08-24,349
2017-08-25,342
2017-08-26,334
2017-08-27,329
2017-08-28,329
2017-08-29,322
2017-08-30,313
2017-08-31,307
2017-09-01,302
2017-09-02,299
2017-09-03,292
2017-09-04,290
2017-09-05,285
2017-09-06,278
2017-09-07,276
2017-09-08,270
2017-09-09,265
2017-09-10,265
2017-09-11,264
2017-09-12,259
2017-09-13,256
2017-09-14,254
2017-09-15,251
2017-09-16,254
2017-09-17,249
2017-09-18,238
2017-09-19,238
2017-09-20,252
2017-09-21,252
2017-09-22,278
2017-09-23,275
2017-09-24,274
2017-09-25,279
2017-09-26,285
2017-09-27,274
2017-09-28,287
2017-09-29,284
2017-09-30,287


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.