Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 19 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-20,7762,Daily Model Output (20170519)
2017-05-21,6691
2017-05-22,5727
2017-05-23,5156
2017-05-24,5781
2017-05-25,6653
2017-05-26,6647
2017-05-27,6661
2017-05-28,7018
2017-05-29,7760
2017-05-30,7406,ESP Model Output (20170518)
2017-05-31,7423
2017-06-01,7574
2017-06-02,7315
2017-06-03,7221
2017-06-04,7291
2017-06-05,7285
2017-06-06,7602
2017-06-07,7391
2017-06-08,7512
2017-06-09,7404
2017-06-10,6984
2017-06-11,6867
2017-06-12,6800
2017-06-13,6442
2017-06-14,5974
2017-06-15,5794
2017-06-16,5419
2017-06-17,4990
2017-06-18,4825
2017-06-19,4625
2017-06-20,4474
2017-06-21,4195
2017-06-22,4095
2017-06-23,3671
2017-06-24,3740
2017-06-25,3477
2017-06-26,3284
2017-06-27,3072
2017-06-28,2962
2017-06-29,2759
2017-06-30,2524
2017-07-01,2375
2017-07-02,2263
2017-07-03,2130
2017-07-04,1814
2017-07-05,1698
2017-07-06,1680
2017-07-07,1533
2017-07-08,1397
2017-07-09,1284
2017-07-10,1194
2017-07-11,1120
2017-07-12,1078
2017-07-13,1027
2017-07-14,945
2017-07-15,894
2017-07-16,861
2017-07-17,816
2017-07-18,769
2017-07-19,731
2017-07-20,699
2017-07-21,678
2017-07-22,647
2017-07-23,618
2017-07-24,588
2017-07-25,568
2017-07-26,549
2017-07-27,533
2017-07-28,519
2017-07-29,498
2017-07-30,487
2017-07-31,471
2017-08-01,459
2017-08-02,441
2017-08-03,439
2017-08-04,430
2017-08-05,415
2017-08-06,413
2017-08-07,406
2017-08-08,399
2017-08-09,398
2017-08-10,395
2017-08-11,392
2017-08-12,384
2017-08-13,378
2017-08-14,371
2017-08-15,365
2017-08-16,360
2017-08-17,358
2017-08-18,354
2017-08-19,349
2017-08-20,345
2017-08-21,338
2017-08-22,331
2017-08-23,347
2017-08-24,350
2017-08-25,343
2017-08-26,335
2017-08-27,329
2017-08-28,330
2017-08-29,322
2017-08-30,314
2017-08-31,308
2017-09-01,303
2017-09-02,300
2017-09-03,292
2017-09-04,290
2017-09-05,285
2017-09-06,278
2017-09-07,276
2017-09-08,269
2017-09-09,265
2017-09-10,266
2017-09-11,265
2017-09-12,259
2017-09-13,257
2017-09-14,255
2017-09-15,252
2017-09-16,254
2017-09-17,249
2017-09-18,239
2017-09-19,239
2017-09-20,253
2017-09-21,253
2017-09-22,279
2017-09-23,275
2017-09-24,273
2017-09-25,279
2017-09-26,285
2017-09-27,275
2017-09-28,287
2017-09-29,285
2017-09-30,286


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.