Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 20 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-21,7059,Daily Model Output (20170520)
2017-05-22,6391
2017-05-23,5657
2017-05-24,5654
2017-05-25,5963
2017-05-26,6175
2017-05-27,6990
2017-05-28,7492
2017-05-29,7362
2017-05-30,6863
2017-05-31,8998,ESP Model Output (20170519)
2017-06-01,8563
2017-06-02,8049
2017-06-03,7717
2017-06-04,7702
2017-06-05,7594
2017-06-06,7838
2017-06-07,7475
2017-06-08,7613
2017-06-09,7379
2017-06-10,6942
2017-06-11,6801
2017-06-12,6796
2017-06-13,6391
2017-06-14,5849
2017-06-15,5638
2017-06-16,5279
2017-06-17,4927
2017-06-18,4693
2017-06-19,4349
2017-06-20,4303
2017-06-21,4049
2017-06-22,3874
2017-06-23,3579
2017-06-24,3568
2017-06-25,3343
2017-06-26,3106
2017-06-27,2883
2017-06-28,2769
2017-06-29,2594
2017-06-30,2375
2017-07-01,2252
2017-07-02,2147
2017-07-03,2031
2017-07-04,1763
2017-07-05,1646
2017-07-06,1615
2017-07-07,1474
2017-07-08,1354
2017-07-09,1228
2017-07-10,1131
2017-07-11,1059
2017-07-12,1037
2017-07-13,991
2017-07-14,917
2017-07-15,886
2017-07-16,838
2017-07-17,785
2017-07-18,752
2017-07-19,713
2017-07-20,681
2017-07-21,664
2017-07-22,627
2017-07-23,599
2017-07-24,576
2017-07-25,556
2017-07-26,540
2017-07-27,525
2017-07-28,512
2017-07-29,491
2017-07-30,479
2017-07-31,465
2017-08-01,450
2017-08-02,437
2017-08-03,434
2017-08-04,420
2017-08-05,406
2017-08-06,406
2017-08-07,402
2017-08-08,397
2017-08-09,394
2017-08-10,390
2017-08-11,390
2017-08-12,379
2017-08-13,372
2017-08-14,366
2017-08-15,360
2017-08-16,356
2017-08-17,356
2017-08-18,353
2017-08-19,349
2017-08-20,346
2017-08-21,337
2017-08-22,331
2017-08-23,347
2017-08-24,350
2017-08-25,342
2017-08-26,336
2017-08-27,329
2017-08-28,330
2017-08-29,322
2017-08-30,315
2017-08-31,308
2017-09-01,304
2017-09-02,299
2017-09-03,293
2017-09-04,291
2017-09-05,286
2017-09-06,278
2017-09-07,276
2017-09-08,270
2017-09-09,265
2017-09-10,266
2017-09-11,266
2017-09-12,260
2017-09-13,258
2017-09-14,256
2017-09-15,252
2017-09-16,255
2017-09-17,250
2017-09-18,240
2017-09-19,240
2017-09-20,254
2017-09-21,252
2017-09-22,280
2017-09-23,276
2017-09-24,273
2017-09-25,281
2017-09-26,286
2017-09-27,275
2017-09-28,287
2017-09-29,286
2017-09-30,285


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.