Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 21 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-22,6588,Daily Model Output (20170521)
2017-05-23,6080
2017-05-24,5901
2017-05-25,6288
2017-05-26,6607
2017-05-27,7817
2017-05-28,8303
2017-05-29,7716
2017-05-30,6770
2017-05-31,6345
2017-06-01,6740,ESP Model Output (20170520)
2017-06-02,6856
2017-06-03,7001
2017-06-04,7208
2017-06-05,7242
2017-06-06,7693
2017-06-07,7321
2017-06-08,7630
2017-06-09,7390
2017-06-10,6965
2017-06-11,6756
2017-06-12,6924
2017-06-13,6584
2017-06-14,5970
2017-06-15,5701
2017-06-16,5329
2017-06-17,4965
2017-06-18,4843
2017-06-19,4635
2017-06-20,4372
2017-06-21,4218
2017-06-22,3967
2017-06-23,3748
2017-06-24,3563
2017-06-25,3382
2017-06-26,3125
2017-06-27,2962
2017-06-28,2889
2017-06-29,2669
2017-06-30,2440
2017-07-01,2340
2017-07-02,2251
2017-07-03,2076
2017-07-04,1838
2017-07-05,1707
2017-07-06,1663
2017-07-07,1520
2017-07-08,1400
2017-07-09,1295
2017-07-10,1188
2017-07-11,1111
2017-07-12,1064
2017-07-13,995
2017-07-14,942
2017-07-15,890
2017-07-16,864
2017-07-17,802
2017-07-18,761
2017-07-19,724
2017-07-20,690
2017-07-21,667
2017-07-22,637
2017-07-23,607
2017-07-24,584
2017-07-25,564
2017-07-26,544
2017-07-27,531
2017-07-28,517
2017-07-29,496
2017-07-30,480
2017-07-31,469
2017-08-01,452
2017-08-02,438
2017-08-03,437
2017-08-04,422
2017-08-05,409
2017-08-06,407
2017-08-07,403
2017-08-08,398
2017-08-09,395
2017-08-10,391
2017-08-11,388
2017-08-12,379
2017-08-13,374
2017-08-14,367
2017-08-15,362
2017-08-16,357
2017-08-17,355
2017-08-18,353
2017-08-19,349
2017-08-20,346
2017-08-21,338
2017-08-22,332
2017-08-23,347
2017-08-24,349
2017-08-25,341
2017-08-26,335
2017-08-27,330
2017-08-28,330
2017-08-29,322
2017-08-30,314
2017-08-31,308
2017-09-01,304
2017-09-02,299
2017-09-03,292
2017-09-04,290
2017-09-05,285
2017-09-06,277
2017-09-07,275
2017-09-08,269
2017-09-09,263
2017-09-10,265
2017-09-11,265
2017-09-12,260
2017-09-13,258
2017-09-14,255
2017-09-15,252
2017-09-16,253
2017-09-17,250
2017-09-18,239
2017-09-19,239
2017-09-20,253
2017-09-21,252
2017-09-22,279
2017-09-23,276
2017-09-24,272
2017-09-25,280
2017-09-26,286
2017-09-27,274
2017-09-28,285
2017-09-29,285
2017-09-30,284


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.