Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 22 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-23,5467,Daily Model Output (20170522)
2017-05-24,5343
2017-05-25,5928
2017-05-26,6663
2017-05-27,8062
2017-05-28,8738
2017-05-29,8397
2017-05-30,7598
2017-05-31,6804
2017-06-01,6449
2017-06-02,6591,ESP Model Output (20170521)
2017-06-03,6715
2017-06-04,7193
2017-06-05,7395
2017-06-06,7606
2017-06-07,7280
2017-06-08,7502
2017-06-09,7485
2017-06-10,6938
2017-06-11,6818
2017-06-12,6956
2017-06-13,6703
2017-06-14,5917
2017-06-15,5797
2017-06-16,5578
2017-06-17,5180
2017-06-18,4918
2017-06-19,4718
2017-06-20,4375
2017-06-21,4220
2017-06-22,4055
2017-06-23,3738
2017-06-24,3616
2017-06-25,3436
2017-06-26,3161
2017-06-27,3004
2017-06-28,2963
2017-06-29,2780
2017-06-30,2481
2017-07-01,2441
2017-07-02,2307
2017-07-03,2122
2017-07-04,1863
2017-07-05,1771
2017-07-06,1732
2017-07-07,1566
2017-07-08,1443
2017-07-09,1334
2017-07-10,1235
2017-07-11,1143
2017-07-12,1085
2017-07-13,1019
2017-07-14,964
2017-07-15,910
2017-07-16,881
2017-07-17,821
2017-07-18,773
2017-07-19,730
2017-07-20,696
2017-07-21,665
2017-07-22,642
2017-07-23,605
2017-07-24,578
2017-07-25,568
2017-07-26,548
2017-07-27,529
2017-07-28,511
2017-07-29,490
2017-07-30,485
2017-07-31,473
2017-08-01,453
2017-08-02,439
2017-08-03,441
2017-08-04,425
2017-08-05,413
2017-08-06,406
2017-08-07,400
2017-08-08,400
2017-08-09,397
2017-08-10,392
2017-08-11,389
2017-08-12,377
2017-08-13,373
2017-08-14,367
2017-08-15,362
2017-08-16,358
2017-08-17,356
2017-08-18,355
2017-08-19,350
2017-08-20,347
2017-08-21,339
2017-08-22,333
2017-08-23,348
2017-08-24,349
2017-08-25,341
2017-08-26,335
2017-08-27,330
2017-08-28,330
2017-08-29,323
2017-08-30,314
2017-08-31,308
2017-09-01,304
2017-09-02,300
2017-09-03,293
2017-09-04,291
2017-09-05,284
2017-09-06,278
2017-09-07,275
2017-09-08,269
2017-09-09,264
2017-09-10,265
2017-09-11,264
2017-09-12,261
2017-09-13,258
2017-09-14,256
2017-09-15,252
2017-09-16,253
2017-09-17,250
2017-09-18,240
2017-09-19,239
2017-09-20,254
2017-09-21,252
2017-09-22,280
2017-09-23,276
2017-09-24,273
2017-09-25,281
2017-09-26,286
2017-09-27,274
2017-09-28,285
2017-09-29,285
2017-09-30,282


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.