Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 23 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-24,5257,Daily Model Output (20170523)
2017-05-25,5061
2017-05-26,5647
2017-05-27,7801
2017-05-28,8484
2017-05-29,8711
2017-05-30,8947
2017-05-31,7949
2017-06-01,6917
2017-06-02,7095
2017-06-03,7613,ESP Model Output (20170522)
2017-06-04,8194
2017-06-05,8102
2017-06-06,7972
2017-06-07,7645
2017-06-08,7775
2017-06-09,7488
2017-06-10,7032
2017-06-11,7005
2017-06-12,7137
2017-06-13,6789
2017-06-14,6142
2017-06-15,5891
2017-06-16,5591
2017-06-17,5156
2017-06-18,4952
2017-06-19,4632
2017-06-20,4523
2017-06-21,4325
2017-06-22,4092
2017-06-23,3914
2017-06-24,3661
2017-06-25,3470
2017-06-26,3200
2017-06-27,3059
2017-06-28,2978
2017-06-29,2818
2017-06-30,2505
2017-07-01,2416
2017-07-02,2331
2017-07-03,2132
2017-07-04,1865
2017-07-05,1747
2017-07-06,1764
2017-07-07,1591
2017-07-08,1441
2017-07-09,1306
2017-07-10,1216
2017-07-11,1113
2017-07-12,1111
2017-07-13,1044
2017-07-14,983
2017-07-15,920
2017-07-16,888
2017-07-17,831
2017-07-18,785
2017-07-19,744
2017-07-20,707
2017-07-21,673
2017-07-22,644
2017-07-23,612
2017-07-24,590
2017-07-25,568
2017-07-26,548
2017-07-27,529
2017-07-28,509
2017-07-29,491
2017-07-30,488
2017-07-31,470
2017-08-01,455
2017-08-02,440
2017-08-03,443
2017-08-04,428
2017-08-05,415
2017-08-06,408
2017-08-07,400
2017-08-08,402
2017-08-09,398
2017-08-10,393
2017-08-11,390
2017-08-12,377
2017-08-13,374
2017-08-14,370
2017-08-15,365
2017-08-16,360
2017-08-17,357
2017-08-18,357
2017-08-19,350
2017-08-20,348
2017-08-21,341
2017-08-22,333
2017-08-23,349
2017-08-24,349
2017-08-25,342
2017-08-26,335
2017-08-27,331
2017-08-28,331
2017-08-29,324
2017-08-30,315
2017-08-31,309
2017-09-01,305
2017-09-02,300
2017-09-03,294
2017-09-04,292
2017-09-05,284
2017-09-06,279
2017-09-07,276
2017-09-08,270
2017-09-09,264
2017-09-10,266
2017-09-11,264
2017-09-12,262
2017-09-13,260
2017-09-14,256
2017-09-15,253
2017-09-16,253
2017-09-17,251
2017-09-18,240
2017-09-19,239
2017-09-20,255
2017-09-21,253
2017-09-22,282
2017-09-23,277
2017-09-24,274
2017-09-25,282
2017-09-26,288
2017-09-27,275
2017-09-28,285
2017-09-29,285
2017-09-30,283


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.