Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 24 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-25,4794,Daily Model Output (20170524)
2017-05-26,4549
2017-05-27,5953
2017-05-28,7899
2017-05-29,8533
2017-05-30,8232
2017-05-31,7710
2017-06-01,7157
2017-06-02,7245
2017-06-03,8080
2017-06-04,8625,ESP Model Output (20170523)
2017-06-05,8521
2017-06-06,8316
2017-06-07,8238
2017-06-08,8054
2017-06-09,7807
2017-06-10,7326
2017-06-11,7204
2017-06-12,7327
2017-06-13,6990
2017-06-14,6326
2017-06-15,6116
2017-06-16,5805
2017-06-17,5351
2017-06-18,5109
2017-06-19,4802
2017-06-20,4664
2017-06-21,4427
2017-06-22,4249
2017-06-23,4136
2017-06-24,3872
2017-06-25,3611
2017-06-26,3337
2017-06-27,3179
2017-06-28,3136
2017-06-29,2944
2017-06-30,2620
2017-07-01,2527
2017-07-02,2431
2017-07-03,2254
2017-07-04,1925
2017-07-05,1805
2017-07-06,1834
2017-07-07,1642
2017-07-08,1490
2017-07-09,1350
2017-07-10,1257
2017-07-11,1162
2017-07-12,1178
2017-07-13,1101
2017-07-14,1026
2017-07-15,955
2017-07-16,925
2017-07-17,858
2017-07-18,812
2017-07-19,772
2017-07-20,731
2017-07-21,698
2017-07-22,665
2017-07-23,628
2017-07-24,605
2017-07-25,583
2017-07-26,564
2017-07-27,541
2017-07-28,520
2017-07-29,501
2017-07-30,500
2017-07-31,478
2017-08-01,463
2017-08-02,448
2017-08-03,449
2017-08-04,435
2017-08-05,422
2017-08-06,414
2017-08-07,406
2017-08-08,405
2017-08-09,402
2017-08-10,398
2017-08-11,393
2017-08-12,381
2017-08-13,377
2017-08-14,375
2017-08-15,370
2017-08-16,365
2017-08-17,361
2017-08-18,358
2017-08-19,352
2017-08-20,350
2017-08-21,344
2017-08-22,335
2017-08-23,351
2017-08-24,350
2017-08-25,344
2017-08-26,337
2017-08-27,332
2017-08-28,332
2017-08-29,325
2017-08-30,317
2017-08-31,311
2017-09-01,307
2017-09-02,301
2017-09-03,295
2017-09-04,293
2017-09-05,285
2017-09-06,280
2017-09-07,277
2017-09-08,271
2017-09-09,266
2017-09-10,267
2017-09-11,266
2017-09-12,263
2017-09-13,261
2017-09-14,257
2017-09-15,255
2017-09-16,254
2017-09-17,252
2017-09-18,241
2017-09-19,240
2017-09-20,256
2017-09-21,254
2017-09-22,284
2017-09-23,278
2017-09-24,275
2017-09-25,283
2017-09-26,288
2017-09-27,277
2017-09-28,286
2017-09-29,284
2017-09-30,282


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.