Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 25 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-26,4206,Daily Model Output (20170525)
2017-05-27,5142
2017-05-28,7309
2017-05-29,7750
2017-05-30,7596
2017-05-31,6649
2017-06-01,6318
2017-06-02,6640
2017-06-03,7183
2017-06-04,7944
2017-06-05,9167,ESP Model Output (20170524)
2017-06-06,9241
2017-06-07,8938
2017-06-08,8522
2017-06-09,8429
2017-06-10,7827
2017-06-11,7744
2017-06-12,7842
2017-06-13,7473
2017-06-14,6773
2017-06-15,6448
2017-06-16,6071
2017-06-17,5697
2017-06-18,5300
2017-06-19,5062
2017-06-20,4910
2017-06-21,4632
2017-06-22,4496
2017-06-23,4389
2017-06-24,4062
2017-06-25,3737
2017-06-26,3468
2017-06-27,3316
2017-06-28,3196
2017-06-29,3054
2017-06-30,2733
2017-07-01,2628
2017-07-02,2532
2017-07-03,2284
2017-07-04,1991
2017-07-05,1869
2017-07-06,1871
2017-07-07,1672
2017-07-08,1520
2017-07-09,1393
2017-07-10,1305
2017-07-11,1196
2017-07-12,1218
2017-07-13,1142
2017-07-14,1050
2017-07-15,978
2017-07-16,950
2017-07-17,876
2017-07-18,833
2017-07-19,785
2017-07-20,744
2017-07-21,713
2017-07-22,677
2017-07-23,641
2017-07-24,615
2017-07-25,595
2017-07-26,578
2017-07-27,553
2017-07-28,528
2017-07-29,511
2017-07-30,508
2017-07-31,485
2017-08-01,469
2017-08-02,455
2017-08-03,456
2017-08-04,442
2017-08-05,427
2017-08-06,417
2017-08-07,412
2017-08-08,407
2017-08-09,403
2017-08-10,400
2017-08-11,394
2017-08-12,384
2017-08-13,379
2017-08-14,375
2017-08-15,370
2017-08-16,364
2017-08-17,362
2017-08-18,361
2017-08-19,354
2017-08-20,351
2017-08-21,346
2017-08-22,337
2017-08-23,352
2017-08-24,352
2017-08-25,345
2017-08-26,338
2017-08-27,333
2017-08-28,333
2017-08-29,326
2017-08-30,318
2017-08-31,312
2017-09-01,308
2017-09-02,302
2017-09-03,296
2017-09-04,294
2017-09-05,286
2017-09-06,281
2017-09-07,278
2017-09-08,272
2017-09-09,267
2017-09-10,268
2017-09-11,267
2017-09-12,264
2017-09-13,261
2017-09-14,257
2017-09-15,256
2017-09-16,256
2017-09-17,253
2017-09-18,243
2017-09-19,242
2017-09-20,257
2017-09-21,255
2017-09-22,286
2017-09-23,279
2017-09-24,277
2017-09-25,285
2017-09-26,288
2017-09-27,278
2017-09-28,286
2017-09-29,284
2017-09-30,282


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.