Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 27 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-28,6362,Daily Model Output (20170527)
2017-05-29,7174
2017-05-30,7075
2017-05-31,6386
2017-06-01,6552
2017-06-02,7032
2017-06-03,7733
2017-06-04,8348
2017-06-05,8577
2017-06-06,8578
2017-06-07,8859,ESP Model Output (20170526)
2017-06-08,8753
2017-06-09,8466
2017-06-10,7615
2017-06-11,7546
2017-06-12,7473
2017-06-13,6845
2017-06-14,6466
2017-06-15,6052
2017-06-16,5712
2017-06-17,5343
2017-06-18,4994
2017-06-19,4741
2017-06-20,4441
2017-06-21,4319
2017-06-22,4221
2017-06-23,4065
2017-06-24,3730
2017-06-25,3398
2017-06-26,3224
2017-06-27,3098
2017-06-28,2934
2017-06-29,2709
2017-06-30,2502
2017-07-01,2430
2017-07-02,2292
2017-07-03,2111
2017-07-04,1813
2017-07-05,1695
2017-07-06,1675
2017-07-07,1487
2017-07-08,1358
2017-07-09,1281
2017-07-10,1190
2017-07-11,1117
2017-07-12,1134
2017-07-13,1063
2017-07-14,995
2017-07-15,918
2017-07-16,885
2017-07-17,820
2017-07-18,778
2017-07-19,729
2017-07-20,694
2017-07-21,667
2017-07-22,642
2017-07-23,614
2017-07-24,587
2017-07-25,569
2017-07-26,547
2017-07-27,529
2017-07-28,512
2017-07-29,491
2017-07-30,476
2017-07-31,461
2017-08-01,450
2017-08-02,439
2017-08-03,433
2017-08-04,423
2017-08-05,413
2017-08-06,407
2017-08-07,403
2017-08-08,396
2017-08-09,393
2017-08-10,390
2017-08-11,387
2017-08-12,376
2017-08-13,373
2017-08-14,366
2017-08-15,362
2017-08-16,358
2017-08-17,357
2017-08-18,356
2017-08-19,350
2017-08-20,346
2017-08-21,340
2017-08-22,333
2017-08-23,347
2017-08-24,348
2017-08-25,341
2017-08-26,334
2017-08-27,329
2017-08-28,329
2017-08-29,320
2017-08-30,314
2017-08-31,308
2017-09-01,303
2017-09-02,299
2017-09-03,293
2017-09-04,291
2017-09-05,284
2017-09-06,278
2017-09-07,276
2017-09-08,270
2017-09-09,263
2017-09-10,266
2017-09-11,263
2017-09-12,261
2017-09-13,257
2017-09-14,254
2017-09-15,251
2017-09-16,248
2017-09-17,250
2017-09-18,236
2017-09-19,235
2017-09-20,254
2017-09-21,251
2017-09-22,283
2017-09-23,277
2017-09-24,274
2017-09-25,277
2017-09-26,281
2017-09-27,276
2017-09-28,280
2017-09-29,281
2017-09-30,280


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.