Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 28 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-29,6868,Daily Model Output (20170528)
2017-05-30,6990
2017-05-31,6740
2017-06-01,6864
2017-06-02,7405
2017-06-03,8396
2017-06-04,9265
2017-06-05,9562
2017-06-06,9465
2017-06-07,9345
2017-06-08,8587,ESP Model Output (20170527)
2017-06-09,8535
2017-06-10,8151
2017-06-11,7855
2017-06-12,7575
2017-06-13,7064
2017-06-14,6636
2017-06-15,6201
2017-06-16,5760
2017-06-17,5445
2017-06-18,5092
2017-06-19,4842
2017-06-20,4563
2017-06-21,4465
2017-06-22,4327
2017-06-23,4106
2017-06-24,3856
2017-06-25,3513
2017-06-26,3259
2017-06-27,3142
2017-06-28,3018
2017-06-29,2806
2017-06-30,2598
2017-07-01,2448
2017-07-02,2359
2017-07-03,2173
2017-07-04,1856
2017-07-05,1752
2017-07-06,1703
2017-07-07,1532
2017-07-08,1425
2017-07-09,1305
2017-07-10,1241
2017-07-11,1161
2017-07-12,1115
2017-07-13,1059
2017-07-14,975
2017-07-15,921
2017-07-16,887
2017-07-17,831
2017-07-18,781
2017-07-19,736
2017-07-20,700
2017-07-21,678
2017-07-22,649
2017-07-23,621
2017-07-24,594
2017-07-25,570
2017-07-26,553
2017-07-27,531
2017-07-28,515
2017-07-29,496
2017-07-30,476
2017-07-31,465
2017-08-01,454
2017-08-02,443
2017-08-03,434
2017-08-04,425
2017-08-05,418
2017-08-06,411
2017-08-07,407
2017-08-08,399
2017-08-09,396
2017-08-10,391
2017-08-11,388
2017-08-12,379
2017-08-13,375
2017-08-14,368
2017-08-15,363
2017-08-16,359
2017-08-17,359
2017-08-18,357
2017-08-19,352
2017-08-20,345
2017-08-21,341
2017-08-22,333
2017-08-23,348
2017-08-24,348
2017-08-25,342
2017-08-26,335
2017-08-27,329
2017-08-28,330
2017-08-29,321
2017-08-30,314
2017-08-31,308
2017-09-01,303
2017-09-02,299
2017-09-03,293
2017-09-04,292
2017-09-05,284
2017-09-06,279
2017-09-07,276
2017-09-08,271
2017-09-09,264
2017-09-10,267
2017-09-11,264
2017-09-12,262
2017-09-13,258
2017-09-14,254
2017-09-15,251
2017-09-16,249
2017-09-17,251
2017-09-18,237
2017-09-19,236
2017-09-20,255
2017-09-21,252
2017-09-22,283
2017-09-23,278
2017-09-24,274
2017-09-25,278
2017-09-26,281
2017-09-27,277
2017-09-28,280
2017-09-29,282
2017-09-30,280


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.