Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 29 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-30,6572,Daily Model Output (20170529)
2017-05-31,6461
2017-06-01,7069
2017-06-02,7961
2017-06-03,8665
2017-06-04,9221
2017-06-05,9197
2017-06-06,9033
2017-06-07,8967
2017-06-08,8868
2017-06-09,9094,ESP Model Output (20170528)
2017-06-10,8848
2017-06-11,8332
2017-06-12,7761
2017-06-13,7147
2017-06-14,6705
2017-06-15,6218
2017-06-16,5839
2017-06-17,5410
2017-06-18,5049
2017-06-19,4776
2017-06-20,4531
2017-06-21,4383
2017-06-22,4122
2017-06-23,3974
2017-06-24,3634
2017-06-25,3442
2017-06-26,3188
2017-06-27,3080
2017-06-28,2948
2017-06-29,2730
2017-06-30,2552
2017-07-01,2359
2017-07-02,2265
2017-07-03,2043
2017-07-04,1779
2017-07-05,1650
2017-07-06,1649
2017-07-07,1474
2017-07-08,1387
2017-07-09,1275
2017-07-10,1182
2017-07-11,1106
2017-07-12,1039
2017-07-13,986
2017-07-14,930
2017-07-15,884
2017-07-16,851
2017-07-17,799
2017-07-18,761
2017-07-19,717
2017-07-20,683
2017-07-21,661
2017-07-22,634
2017-07-23,607
2017-07-24,583
2017-07-25,560
2017-07-26,536
2017-07-27,518
2017-07-28,505
2017-07-29,491
2017-07-30,470
2017-07-31,459
2017-08-01,449
2017-08-02,438
2017-08-03,427
2017-08-04,415
2017-08-05,409
2017-08-06,408
2017-08-07,401
2017-08-08,395
2017-08-09,393
2017-08-10,390
2017-08-11,388
2017-08-12,379
2017-08-13,372
2017-08-14,367
2017-08-15,362
2017-08-16,358
2017-08-17,355
2017-08-18,357
2017-08-19,350
2017-08-20,342
2017-08-21,339
2017-08-22,331
2017-08-23,347
2017-08-24,349
2017-08-25,340
2017-08-26,334
2017-08-27,328
2017-08-28,330
2017-08-29,320
2017-08-30,313
2017-08-31,309
2017-09-01,302
2017-09-02,299
2017-09-03,294
2017-09-04,291
2017-09-05,285
2017-09-06,278
2017-09-07,276
2017-09-08,271
2017-09-09,264
2017-09-10,267
2017-09-11,264
2017-09-12,262
2017-09-13,258
2017-09-14,255
2017-09-15,252
2017-09-16,249
2017-09-17,252
2017-09-18,237
2017-09-19,237
2017-09-20,255
2017-09-21,253
2017-09-22,284
2017-09-23,278
2017-09-24,274
2017-09-25,279
2017-09-26,282
2017-09-27,277
2017-09-28,281
2017-09-29,282
2017-09-30,281


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.