Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 30 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-31,5962,Daily Model Output (20170530)
2017-06-01,6206
2017-06-02,7038
2017-06-03,8006
2017-06-04,8866
2017-06-05,8873
2017-06-06,8670
2017-06-07,8629
2017-06-08,8292
2017-06-09,7809
2017-06-10,8515,ESP Model Output (20170529)
2017-06-11,8330
2017-06-12,7764
2017-06-13,7201
2017-06-14,6655
2017-06-15,6305
2017-06-16,5924
2017-06-17,5497
2017-06-18,5168
2017-06-19,4835
2017-06-20,4560
2017-06-21,4385
2017-06-22,4185
2017-06-23,3962
2017-06-24,3691
2017-06-25,3456
2017-06-26,3339
2017-06-27,3110
2017-06-28,2969
2017-06-29,2748
2017-06-30,2579
2017-07-01,2398
2017-07-02,2258
2017-07-03,2107
2017-07-04,1853
2017-07-05,1696
2017-07-06,1710
2017-07-07,1500
2017-07-08,1388
2017-07-09,1276
2017-07-10,1192
2017-07-11,1102
2017-07-12,1049
2017-07-13,1011
2017-07-14,951
2017-07-15,899
2017-07-16,862
2017-07-17,813
2017-07-18,768
2017-07-19,726
2017-07-20,691
2017-07-21,670
2017-07-22,646
2017-07-23,613
2017-07-24,582
2017-07-25,558
2017-07-26,540
2017-07-27,523
2017-07-28,510
2017-07-29,491
2017-07-30,473
2017-07-31,462
2017-08-01,451
2017-08-02,440
2017-08-03,432
2017-08-04,419
2017-08-05,413
2017-08-06,411
2017-08-07,404
2017-08-08,397
2017-08-09,395
2017-08-10,392
2017-08-11,388
2017-08-12,377
2017-08-13,371
2017-08-14,368
2017-08-15,364
2017-08-16,360
2017-08-17,356
2017-08-18,358
2017-08-19,350
2017-08-20,343
2017-08-21,340
2017-08-22,333
2017-08-23,345
2017-08-24,349
2017-08-25,339
2017-08-26,334
2017-08-27,328
2017-08-28,329
2017-08-29,321
2017-08-30,313
2017-08-31,308
2017-09-01,303
2017-09-02,297
2017-09-03,294
2017-09-04,291
2017-09-05,285
2017-09-06,278
2017-09-07,276
2017-09-08,270
2017-09-09,264
2017-09-10,264
2017-09-11,263
2017-09-12,262
2017-09-13,258
2017-09-14,255
2017-09-15,251
2017-09-16,249
2017-09-17,251
2017-09-18,237
2017-09-19,237
2017-09-20,254
2017-09-21,252
2017-09-22,279
2017-09-23,277
2017-09-24,270
2017-09-25,274
2017-09-26,276
2017-09-27,277
2017-09-28,281
2017-09-29,281
2017-09-30,281


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.