Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 31 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-01,5947,Daily Model Output (20170531)
2017-06-02,6460
2017-06-03,7513
2017-06-04,8507
2017-06-05,8639
2017-06-06,8763
2017-06-07,9067
2017-06-08,9024
2017-06-09,8336
2017-06-10,7487
2017-06-11,7474,ESP Model Output (20170530)
2017-06-12,7328
2017-06-13,6782
2017-06-14,6472
2017-06-15,6059
2017-06-16,5653
2017-06-17,5280
2017-06-18,5004
2017-06-19,4630
2017-06-20,4442
2017-06-21,4254
2017-06-22,3983
2017-06-23,3789
2017-06-24,3558
2017-06-25,3328
2017-06-26,3171
2017-06-27,3006
2017-06-28,2867
2017-06-29,2669
2017-06-30,2464
2017-07-01,2316
2017-07-02,2171
2017-07-03,2032
2017-07-04,1817
2017-07-05,1674
2017-07-06,1657
2017-07-07,1474
2017-07-08,1352
2017-07-09,1237
2017-07-10,1139
2017-07-11,1057
2017-07-12,1002
2017-07-13,977
2017-07-14,919
2017-07-15,869
2017-07-16,835
2017-07-17,788
2017-07-18,752
2017-07-19,708
2017-07-20,674
2017-07-21,657
2017-07-22,631
2017-07-23,602
2017-07-24,574
2017-07-25,546
2017-07-26,526
2017-07-27,511
2017-07-28,495
2017-07-29,483
2017-07-30,461
2017-07-31,455
2017-08-01,447
2017-08-02,435
2017-08-03,428
2017-08-04,416
2017-08-05,407
2017-08-06,404
2017-08-07,400
2017-08-08,395
2017-08-09,392
2017-08-10,386
2017-08-11,377
2017-08-12,371
2017-08-13,366
2017-08-14,362
2017-08-15,361
2017-08-16,357
2017-08-17,355
2017-08-18,354
2017-08-19,348
2017-08-20,341
2017-08-21,338
2017-08-22,332
2017-08-23,343
2017-08-24,347
2017-08-25,338
2017-08-26,333
2017-08-27,327
2017-08-28,326
2017-08-29,319
2017-08-30,310
2017-08-31,307
2017-09-01,302
2017-09-02,297
2017-09-03,293
2017-09-04,290
2017-09-05,283
2017-09-06,277
2017-09-07,276
2017-09-08,269
2017-09-09,263
2017-09-10,262
2017-09-11,259
2017-09-12,261
2017-09-13,256
2017-09-14,254
2017-09-15,251
2017-09-16,248
2017-09-17,247
2017-09-18,236
2017-09-19,236
2017-09-20,251
2017-09-21,251
2017-09-22,277
2017-09-23,277
2017-09-24,269
2017-09-25,274
2017-09-26,274
2017-09-27,276
2017-09-28,280
2017-09-29,280
2017-09-30,280


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.