Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 01 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-02,6334,Daily Model Output (20170601)
2017-06-03,6941
2017-06-04,7959
2017-06-05,8268
2017-06-06,8313
2017-06-07,8702
2017-06-08,8940
2017-06-09,8301
2017-06-10,7670
2017-06-11,7192
2017-06-12,7306,ESP Model Output (20170531)
2017-06-13,6913
2017-06-14,6503
2017-06-15,6077
2017-06-16,5654
2017-06-17,5263
2017-06-18,4991
2017-06-19,4606
2017-06-20,4413
2017-06-21,4154
2017-06-22,3960
2017-06-23,3731
2017-06-24,3455
2017-06-25,3260
2017-06-26,3067
2017-06-27,2887
2017-06-28,2712
2017-06-29,2561
2017-06-30,2368
2017-07-01,2194
2017-07-02,2077
2017-07-03,1937
2017-07-04,1727
2017-07-05,1619
2017-07-06,1592
2017-07-07,1409
2017-07-08,1279
2017-07-09,1185
2017-07-10,1107
2017-07-11,1027
2017-07-12,970
2017-07-13,944
2017-07-14,889
2017-07-15,842
2017-07-16,811
2017-07-17,772
2017-07-18,733
2017-07-19,696
2017-07-20,665
2017-07-21,646
2017-07-22,615
2017-07-23,586
2017-07-24,560
2017-07-25,535
2017-07-26,512
2017-07-27,501
2017-07-28,489
2017-07-29,475
2017-07-30,457
2017-07-31,452
2017-08-01,444
2017-08-02,428
2017-08-03,420
2017-08-04,412
2017-08-05,405
2017-08-06,401
2017-08-07,396
2017-08-08,394
2017-08-09,389
2017-08-10,380
2017-08-11,372
2017-08-12,371
2017-08-13,365
2017-08-14,360
2017-08-15,358
2017-08-16,355
2017-08-17,353
2017-08-18,350
2017-08-19,345
2017-08-20,339
2017-08-21,337
2017-08-22,327
2017-08-23,342
2017-08-24,344
2017-08-25,337
2017-08-26,332
2017-08-27,326
2017-08-28,324
2017-08-29,317
2017-08-30,309
2017-08-31,305
2017-09-01,301
2017-09-02,297
2017-09-03,293
2017-09-04,290
2017-09-05,284
2017-09-06,277
2017-09-07,276
2017-09-08,269
2017-09-09,263
2017-09-10,262
2017-09-11,259
2017-09-12,261
2017-09-13,256
2017-09-14,254
2017-09-15,251
2017-09-16,248
2017-09-17,247
2017-09-18,236
2017-09-19,236
2017-09-20,249
2017-09-21,251
2017-09-22,274
2017-09-23,277
2017-09-24,269
2017-09-25,273
2017-09-26,272
2017-09-27,276
2017-09-28,279
2017-09-29,280
2017-09-30,280


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.