Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 02 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-03,7063,Daily Model Output (20170602)
2017-06-04,7749
2017-06-05,8110
2017-06-06,8236
2017-06-07,8631
2017-06-08,8581
2017-06-09,8325
2017-06-10,7818
2017-06-11,7222
2017-06-12,6656
2017-06-13,6962,ESP Model Output (20170601)
2017-06-14,6411
2017-06-15,5889
2017-06-16,5427
2017-06-17,4983
2017-06-18,4717
2017-06-19,4366
2017-06-20,4121
2017-06-21,3896
2017-06-22,3671
2017-06-23,3412
2017-06-24,3226
2017-06-25,3003
2017-06-26,2787
2017-06-27,2606
2017-06-28,2447
2017-06-29,2264
2017-06-30,2105
2017-07-01,1952
2017-07-02,1815
2017-07-03,1729
2017-07-04,1517
2017-07-05,1446
2017-07-06,1416
2017-07-07,1276
2017-07-08,1166
2017-07-09,1069
2017-07-10,1003
2017-07-11,940
2017-07-12,892
2017-07-13,862
2017-07-14,816
2017-07-15,783
2017-07-16,754
2017-07-17,718
2017-07-18,682
2017-07-19,650
2017-07-20,627
2017-07-21,604
2017-07-22,576
2017-07-23,553
2017-07-24,532
2017-07-25,508
2017-07-26,489
2017-07-27,478
2017-07-28,470
2017-07-29,458
2017-07-30,437
2017-07-31,437
2017-08-01,428
2017-08-02,412
2017-08-03,407
2017-08-04,400
2017-08-05,392
2017-08-06,388
2017-08-07,385
2017-08-08,381
2017-08-09,376
2017-08-10,368
2017-08-11,361
2017-08-12,360
2017-08-13,356
2017-08-14,354
2017-08-15,350
2017-08-16,346
2017-08-17,343
2017-08-18,343
2017-08-19,338
2017-08-20,332
2017-08-21,331
2017-08-22,322
2017-08-23,336
2017-08-24,339
2017-08-25,332
2017-08-26,327
2017-08-27,322
2017-08-28,319
2017-08-29,313
2017-08-30,305
2017-08-31,300
2017-09-01,297
2017-09-02,293
2017-09-03,290
2017-09-04,286
2017-09-05,280
2017-09-06,273
2017-09-07,272
2017-09-08,265
2017-09-09,259
2017-09-10,259
2017-09-11,256
2017-09-12,258
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,250
2017-09-15,247
2017-09-16,242
2017-09-17,244
2017-09-18,233
2017-09-19,233
2017-09-20,244
2017-09-21,248
2017-09-22,271
2017-09-23,272
2017-09-24,266
2017-09-25,269
2017-09-26,269
2017-09-27,272
2017-09-28,275
2017-09-29,277
2017-09-30,276


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.