Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 03 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-04,7962,Daily Model Output (20170603)
2017-06-05,8558
2017-06-06,8396
2017-06-07,8594
2017-06-08,8595
2017-06-09,8398
2017-06-10,8222
2017-06-11,7676
2017-06-12,7004
2017-06-13,6400
2017-06-14,6061,ESP Model Output (20170602)
2017-06-15,5783
2017-06-16,5349
2017-06-17,4917
2017-06-18,4632
2017-06-19,4317
2017-06-20,4091
2017-06-21,3846
2017-06-22,3620
2017-06-23,3404
2017-06-24,3207
2017-06-25,2943
2017-06-26,2755
2017-06-27,2595
2017-06-28,2451
2017-06-29,2255
2017-06-30,2069
2017-07-01,1945
2017-07-02,1809
2017-07-03,1703
2017-07-04,1492
2017-07-05,1427
2017-07-06,1387
2017-07-07,1267
2017-07-08,1161
2017-07-09,1065
2017-07-10,997
2017-07-11,937
2017-07-12,887
2017-07-13,846
2017-07-14,808
2017-07-15,771
2017-07-16,749
2017-07-17,700
2017-07-18,670
2017-07-19,640
2017-07-20,611
2017-07-21,591
2017-07-22,566
2017-07-23,551
2017-07-24,530
2017-07-25,506
2017-07-26,487
2017-07-27,476
2017-07-28,467
2017-07-29,456
2017-07-30,435
2017-07-31,432
2017-08-01,422
2017-08-02,411
2017-08-03,405
2017-08-04,399
2017-08-05,391
2017-08-06,387
2017-08-07,383
2017-08-08,379
2017-08-09,374
2017-08-10,367
2017-08-11,361
2017-08-12,358
2017-08-13,355
2017-08-14,350
2017-08-15,346
2017-08-16,344
2017-08-17,341
2017-08-18,341
2017-08-19,336
2017-08-20,330
2017-08-21,329
2017-08-22,321
2017-08-23,335
2017-08-24,336
2017-08-25,332
2017-08-26,326
2017-08-27,321
2017-08-28,317
2017-08-29,312
2017-08-30,304
2017-08-31,299
2017-09-01,296
2017-09-02,292
2017-09-03,288
2017-09-04,286
2017-09-05,279
2017-09-06,272
2017-09-07,271
2017-09-08,265
2017-09-09,258
2017-09-10,258
2017-09-11,255
2017-09-12,257
2017-09-13,252
2017-09-14,248
2017-09-15,245
2017-09-16,241
2017-09-17,243
2017-09-18,233
2017-09-19,232
2017-09-20,243
2017-09-21,248
2017-09-22,269
2017-09-23,269
2017-09-24,265
2017-09-25,268
2017-09-26,268
2017-09-27,271
2017-09-28,274
2017-09-29,276
2017-09-30,275


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.