Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 04 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-05,8603,Daily Model Output (20170604)
2017-06-06,8721
2017-06-07,8785
2017-06-08,8924
2017-06-09,8391
2017-06-10,8026
2017-06-11,7616
2017-06-12,6968
2017-06-13,6116
2017-06-14,5378
2017-06-15,5712,ESP Model Output (20170603)
2017-06-16,5018
2017-06-17,4760
2017-06-18,4535
2017-06-19,4271
2017-06-20,3977
2017-06-21,3748
2017-06-22,3513
2017-06-23,3301
2017-06-24,3121
2017-06-25,2869
2017-06-26,2705
2017-06-27,2551
2017-06-28,2406
2017-06-29,2208
2017-06-30,2021
2017-07-01,1872
2017-07-02,1768
2017-07-03,1626
2017-07-04,1444
2017-07-05,1358
2017-07-06,1295
2017-07-07,1193
2017-07-08,1104
2017-07-09,1028
2017-07-10,962
2017-07-11,909
2017-07-12,862
2017-07-13,826
2017-07-14,789
2017-07-15,752
2017-07-16,728
2017-07-17,682
2017-07-18,657
2017-07-19,630
2017-07-20,603
2017-07-21,577
2017-07-22,553
2017-07-23,538
2017-07-24,522
2017-07-25,497
2017-07-26,481
2017-07-27,466
2017-07-28,456
2017-07-29,450
2017-07-30,432
2017-07-31,423
2017-08-01,415
2017-08-02,410
2017-08-03,404
2017-08-04,395
2017-08-05,385
2017-08-06,385
2017-08-07,381
2017-08-08,375
2017-08-09,371
2017-08-10,366
2017-08-11,358
2017-08-12,356
2017-08-13,354
2017-08-14,347
2017-08-15,345
2017-08-16,343
2017-08-17,339
2017-08-18,339
2017-08-19,336
2017-08-20,329
2017-08-21,328
2017-08-22,318
2017-08-23,334
2017-08-24,335
2017-08-25,332
2017-08-26,326
2017-08-27,321
2017-08-28,316
2017-08-29,309
2017-08-30,304
2017-08-31,298
2017-09-01,295
2017-09-02,292
2017-09-03,288
2017-09-04,286
2017-09-05,279
2017-09-06,272
2017-09-07,271
2017-09-08,263
2017-09-09,258
2017-09-10,258
2017-09-11,255
2017-09-12,257
2017-09-13,251
2017-09-14,248
2017-09-15,245
2017-09-16,240
2017-09-17,241
2017-09-18,232
2017-09-19,232
2017-09-20,242
2017-09-21,247
2017-09-22,269
2017-09-23,267
2017-09-24,264
2017-09-25,268
2017-09-26,268
2017-09-27,271
2017-09-28,274
2017-09-29,276
2017-09-30,274


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.