Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 05 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-06,8878,Daily Model Output (20170605)
2017-06-07,9353
2017-06-08,9802
2017-06-09,10007
2017-06-10,9594
2017-06-11,8757
2017-06-12,7809
2017-06-13,6852
2017-06-14,5877
2017-06-15,5238
2017-06-16,4849,ESP Model Output (20170604)
2017-06-17,4619
2017-06-18,4467
2017-06-19,4107
2017-06-20,3981
2017-06-21,3797
2017-06-22,3558
2017-06-23,3336
2017-06-24,3101
2017-06-25,2903
2017-06-26,2738
2017-06-27,2577
2017-06-28,2381
2017-06-29,2254
2017-06-30,2049
2017-07-01,1907
2017-07-02,1780
2017-07-03,1639
2017-07-04,1454
2017-07-05,1353
2017-07-06,1335
2017-07-07,1218
2017-07-08,1125
2017-07-09,1039
2017-07-10,974
2017-07-11,914
2017-07-12,876
2017-07-13,840
2017-07-14,794
2017-07-15,758
2017-07-16,729
2017-07-17,698
2017-07-18,660
2017-07-19,636
2017-07-20,609
2017-07-21,582
2017-07-22,556
2017-07-23,540
2017-07-24,523
2017-07-25,500
2017-07-26,487
2017-07-27,468
2017-07-28,460
2017-07-29,451
2017-07-30,430
2017-07-31,422
2017-08-01,417
2017-08-02,412
2017-08-03,407
2017-08-04,396
2017-08-05,387
2017-08-06,387
2017-08-07,383
2017-08-08,379
2017-08-09,370
2017-08-10,364
2017-08-11,360
2017-08-12,358
2017-08-13,354
2017-08-14,348
2017-08-15,346
2017-08-16,342
2017-08-17,340
2017-08-18,339
2017-08-19,337
2017-08-20,329
2017-08-21,329
2017-08-22,319
2017-08-23,334
2017-08-24,335
2017-08-25,332
2017-08-26,326
2017-08-27,321
2017-08-28,316
2017-08-29,310
2017-08-30,304
2017-08-31,299
2017-09-01,295
2017-09-02,292
2017-09-03,288
2017-09-04,287
2017-09-05,279
2017-09-06,272
2017-09-07,271
2017-09-08,263
2017-09-09,258
2017-09-10,259
2017-09-11,255
2017-09-12,257
2017-09-13,251
2017-09-14,248
2017-09-15,245
2017-09-16,241
2017-09-17,240
2017-09-18,232
2017-09-19,231
2017-09-20,241
2017-09-21,247
2017-09-22,269
2017-09-23,267
2017-09-24,264
2017-09-25,268
2017-09-26,268
2017-09-27,271
2017-09-28,274
2017-09-29,276
2017-09-30,274


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.