Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 06 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-07,9505,Daily Model Output (20170606)
2017-06-08,9546
2017-06-09,9836
2017-06-10,9271
2017-06-11,8549
2017-06-12,7689
2017-06-13,6887
2017-06-14,6080
2017-06-15,5358
2017-06-16,4840
2017-06-17,4830,ESP Model Output (20170605)
2017-06-18,4546
2017-06-19,4340
2017-06-20,4093
2017-06-21,3923
2017-06-22,3640
2017-06-23,3445
2017-06-24,3173
2017-06-25,2936
2017-06-26,2863
2017-06-27,2680
2017-06-28,2477
2017-06-29,2306
2017-06-30,2151
2017-07-01,1953
2017-07-02,1839
2017-07-03,1703
2017-07-04,1524
2017-07-05,1430
2017-07-06,1364
2017-07-07,1254
2017-07-08,1162
2017-07-09,1076
2017-07-10,1009
2017-07-11,942
2017-07-12,915
2017-07-13,867
2017-07-14,824
2017-07-15,791
2017-07-16,759
2017-07-17,715
2017-07-18,677
2017-07-19,658
2017-07-20,626
2017-07-21,598
2017-07-22,574
2017-07-23,553
2017-07-24,539
2017-07-25,514
2017-07-26,499
2017-07-27,478
2017-07-28,467
2017-07-29,462
2017-07-30,441
2017-07-31,430
2017-08-01,424
2017-08-02,414
2017-08-03,412
2017-08-04,402
2017-08-05,391
2017-08-06,389
2017-08-07,386
2017-08-08,379
2017-08-09,373
2017-08-10,367
2017-08-11,364
2017-08-12,360
2017-08-13,357
2017-08-14,350
2017-08-15,349
2017-08-16,344
2017-08-17,342
2017-08-18,341
2017-08-19,335
2017-08-20,331
2017-08-21,331
2017-08-22,320
2017-08-23,334
2017-08-24,337
2017-08-25,334
2017-08-26,328
2017-08-27,322
2017-08-28,317
2017-08-29,311
2017-08-30,305
2017-08-31,300
2017-09-01,296
2017-09-02,293
2017-09-03,289
2017-09-04,288
2017-09-05,280
2017-09-06,273
2017-09-07,272
2017-09-08,264
2017-09-09,259
2017-09-10,260
2017-09-11,256
2017-09-12,257
2017-09-13,252
2017-09-14,248
2017-09-15,246
2017-09-16,242
2017-09-17,242
2017-09-18,233
2017-09-19,233
2017-09-20,241
2017-09-21,247
2017-09-22,270
2017-09-23,268
2017-09-24,266
2017-09-25,269
2017-09-26,269
2017-09-27,272
2017-09-28,274
2017-09-29,277
2017-09-30,275


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.