Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 07 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-08,9756,Daily Model Output (20170607)
2017-06-09,10148
2017-06-10,9870
2017-06-11,9226
2017-06-12,8197
2017-06-13,7442
2017-06-14,6680
2017-06-15,5786
2017-06-16,4988
2017-06-17,4483
2017-06-18,4300,ESP Model Output (20170606)
2017-06-19,4088
2017-06-20,3966
2017-06-21,3808
2017-06-22,3551
2017-06-23,3369
2017-06-24,3093
2017-06-25,2884
2017-06-26,2826
2017-06-27,2660
2017-06-28,2454
2017-06-29,2292
2017-06-30,2090
2017-07-01,1936
2017-07-02,1809
2017-07-03,1686
2017-07-04,1503
2017-07-05,1408
2017-07-06,1334
2017-07-07,1218
2017-07-08,1153
2017-07-09,1066
2017-07-10,1002
2017-07-11,939
2017-07-12,898
2017-07-13,866
2017-07-14,821
2017-07-15,788
2017-07-16,757
2017-07-17,707
2017-07-18,676
2017-07-19,645
2017-07-20,626
2017-07-21,593
2017-07-22,566
2017-07-23,552
2017-07-24,538
2017-07-25,512
2017-07-26,499
2017-07-27,479
2017-07-28,465
2017-07-29,459
2017-07-30,439
2017-07-31,429
2017-08-01,421
2017-08-02,413
2017-08-03,409
2017-08-04,400
2017-08-05,391
2017-08-06,388
2017-08-07,383
2017-08-08,376
2017-08-09,373
2017-08-10,365
2017-08-11,364
2017-08-12,358
2017-08-13,356
2017-08-14,350
2017-08-15,349
2017-08-16,344
2017-08-17,342
2017-08-18,341
2017-08-19,335
2017-08-20,331
2017-08-21,330
2017-08-22,321
2017-08-23,335
2017-08-24,337
2017-08-25,334
2017-08-26,327
2017-08-27,322
2017-08-28,316
2017-08-29,311
2017-08-30,305
2017-08-31,300
2017-09-01,296
2017-09-02,293
2017-09-03,289
2017-09-04,287
2017-09-05,281
2017-09-06,273
2017-09-07,273
2017-09-08,265
2017-09-09,259
2017-09-10,260
2017-09-11,257
2017-09-12,257
2017-09-13,252
2017-09-14,248
2017-09-15,247
2017-09-16,242
2017-09-17,242
2017-09-18,234
2017-09-19,233
2017-09-20,241
2017-09-21,247
2017-09-22,270
2017-09-23,268
2017-09-24,265
2017-09-25,269
2017-09-26,269
2017-09-27,272
2017-09-28,274
2017-09-29,277
2017-09-30,275


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.