Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 08 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-09,10176,Daily Model Output (20170608)
2017-06-10,9994
2017-06-11,9562
2017-06-12,8670
2017-06-13,8006
2017-06-14,7390
2017-06-15,6760
2017-06-16,5653
2017-06-17,4923
2017-06-18,4554
2017-06-19,4067,ESP Model Output (20170607)
2017-06-20,3934
2017-06-21,3811
2017-06-22,3565
2017-06-23,3374
2017-06-24,3089
2017-06-25,2945
2017-06-26,2809
2017-06-27,2639
2017-06-28,2431
2017-06-29,2241
2017-06-30,2075
2017-07-01,1907
2017-07-02,1782
2017-07-03,1653
2017-07-04,1461
2017-07-05,1387
2017-07-06,1333
2017-07-07,1212
2017-07-08,1140
2017-07-09,1047
2017-07-10,996
2017-07-11,935
2017-07-12,898
2017-07-13,862
2017-07-14,809
2017-07-15,789
2017-07-16,757
2017-07-17,703
2017-07-18,670
2017-07-19,637
2017-07-20,618
2017-07-21,590
2017-07-22,566
2017-07-23,552
2017-07-24,538
2017-07-25,513
2017-07-26,494
2017-07-27,474
2017-07-28,465
2017-07-29,455
2017-07-30,435
2017-07-31,429
2017-08-01,417
2017-08-02,409
2017-08-03,408
2017-08-04,396
2017-08-05,390
2017-08-06,386
2017-08-07,381
2017-08-08,376
2017-08-09,372
2017-08-10,366
2017-08-11,364
2017-08-12,357
2017-08-13,356
2017-08-14,350
2017-08-15,349
2017-08-16,343
2017-08-17,343
2017-08-18,341
2017-08-19,335
2017-08-20,331
2017-08-21,330
2017-08-22,321
2017-08-23,335
2017-08-24,337
2017-08-25,333
2017-08-26,327
2017-08-27,323
2017-08-28,315
2017-08-29,311
2017-08-30,306
2017-08-31,300
2017-09-01,297
2017-09-02,293
2017-09-03,289
2017-09-04,287
2017-09-05,280
2017-09-06,273
2017-09-07,272
2017-09-08,265
2017-09-09,260
2017-09-10,260
2017-09-11,257
2017-09-12,257
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,248
2017-09-15,246
2017-09-16,243
2017-09-17,242
2017-09-18,234
2017-09-19,233
2017-09-20,241
2017-09-21,246
2017-09-22,270
2017-09-23,268
2017-09-24,266
2017-09-25,270
2017-09-26,270
2017-09-27,273
2017-09-28,275
2017-09-29,277
2017-09-30,276


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.