Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 09 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-10,9872,Daily Model Output (20170609)
2017-06-11,9852
2017-06-12,9226
2017-06-13,8128
2017-06-14,7420
2017-06-15,6716
2017-06-16,5625
2017-06-17,4919
2017-06-18,4600
2017-06-19,4303
2017-06-20,4008,ESP Model Output (20170608)
2017-06-21,3880
2017-06-22,3694
2017-06-23,3415
2017-06-24,3153
2017-06-25,2943
2017-06-26,2814
2017-06-27,2627
2017-06-28,2432
2017-06-29,2235
2017-06-30,2051
2017-07-01,1881
2017-07-02,1758
2017-07-03,1626
2017-07-04,1421
2017-07-05,1351
2017-07-06,1290
2017-07-07,1185
2017-07-08,1099
2017-07-09,1021
2017-07-10,957
2017-07-11,908
2017-07-12,884
2017-07-13,848
2017-07-14,803
2017-07-15,785
2017-07-16,739
2017-07-17,695
2017-07-18,660
2017-07-19,636
2017-07-20,610
2017-07-21,583
2017-07-22,555
2017-07-23,537
2017-07-24,527
2017-07-25,512
2017-07-26,490
2017-07-27,470
2017-07-28,458
2017-07-29,448
2017-07-30,433
2017-07-31,425
2017-08-01,412
2017-08-02,404
2017-08-03,407
2017-08-04,395
2017-08-05,389
2017-08-06,385
2017-08-07,380
2017-08-08,373
2017-08-09,370
2017-08-10,361
2017-08-11,362
2017-08-12,356
2017-08-13,356
2017-08-14,350
2017-08-15,349
2017-08-16,342
2017-08-17,342
2017-08-18,340
2017-08-19,335
2017-08-20,331
2017-08-21,328
2017-08-22,320
2017-08-23,335
2017-08-24,336
2017-08-25,333
2017-08-26,327
2017-08-27,322
2017-08-28,315
2017-08-29,310
2017-08-30,306
2017-08-31,300
2017-09-01,296
2017-09-02,293
2017-09-03,289
2017-09-04,287
2017-09-05,280
2017-09-06,273
2017-09-07,272
2017-09-08,265
2017-09-09,260
2017-09-10,260
2017-09-11,257
2017-09-12,257
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,249
2017-09-15,246
2017-09-16,243
2017-09-17,242
2017-09-18,234
2017-09-19,233
2017-09-20,241
2017-09-21,245
2017-09-22,270
2017-09-23,268
2017-09-24,266
2017-09-25,270
2017-09-26,270
2017-09-27,273
2017-09-28,275
2017-09-29,277
2017-09-30,276


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.